***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.02.2014.-16.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 9999.0 12.4 11.2 6.3 90.0 89.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 9.2 11.3 11.0 6.3 88.2 87.4 3.0 5.3 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 10.0 12.8 11.8 6.6 90.5 89.5 3.6 5.9 8.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 6 94 100 3.3 4.3 7.3 4.5 82.5 81.1 -2.7 -0.4 1.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 1 99 100 9.9 12.7 10.0 6.3 90.7 89.2 3.9 6.1 8.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 9.1 12.6 9.2 6.7 94.0 92.8 3.6 5.6 7.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 8.8 10.9 10.8 6.2 88.4 87.7 2.6 4.8 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 1.0 3.3 9.2 6.2 91.2 89.9 -3.7 -2.0 -0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 10.4 13.8 11.5 6.8 92.1 90.9 4.0 6.3 8.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 10.0 13.0 10.4 6.6 91.9 90.6 4.0 6.2 8.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 10.2 13.5 10.5 6.7 92.1 90.9 4.1 6.3 8.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 9.6 12.5 9.8 6.3 91.8 90.6 3.9 5.9 7.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 10.0 13.4 10.0 6.5 93.0 91.9 4.3 6.4 8.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 10.3 13.1 11.5 6.6 90.5 89.4 3.9 6.2 8.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 20 80 100 8.6 8.6 7.3 3.1 73.6 72.6 3.1 5.4 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 10.6 13.9 10.0 6.6 92.5 91.2 4.7 6.8 8.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 8.5 10.4 10.4 5.9 87.6 86.9 2.8 4.9 6.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 9.2 12.0 9.8 6.4 91.4 89.8 3.6 5.7 7.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 9.3 11.6 11.3 6.4 88.8 88.0 2.9 5.2 7.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 4 96 100 5.4 7.2 7.1 5.4 88.6 86.7 0.7 2.4 4.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 10.2 13.3 11.7 6.6 91.2 89.9 3.9 6.2 8.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 9.3 11.3 10.6 5.9 87.7 86.9 3.1 5.4 7.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 9.4 12.1 11.6 6.5 89.9 89.0 3.1 5.4 7.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 10.5 13.6 11.3 6.6 91.3 90.1 3.9 6.3 8.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 1 99 100 9.1 11.4 9.7 5.8 89.3 88.1 3.2 5.4 7.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 9.6 12.5 8.7 6.0 92.6 91.5 4.4 6.3 8.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 9.8 12.5 10.6 6.2 90.3 89.2 3.7 5.9 8.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 14 86 100 9.7 10.8 7.8 4.3 80.5 79.2 3.6 6.0 8.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 1 99 100 5.7 8.3 8.8 6.0 90.5 88.8 0.0 2.1 4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 9.1 11.3 11.2 6.4 88.8 87.9 2.9 5.2 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------