***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.02.2014.-23.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 6 94 100 9999.0 13.4 12.5 6.4 93.2 89.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 9 91 100 9.7 13.1 12.1 6.1 91.8 88.0 4.1 6.3 8.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 8 92 100 10.7 14.5 12.8 6.4 92.8 88.7 4.8 7.1 9.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 2 98 100 4.1 7.6 10.6 6.2 92.9 88.9 -1.9 0.3 2.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 3 97 100 11.0 15.1 11.4 6.6 93.8 89.5 4.8 7.1 9.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 11 89 100 9.5 14.2 10.4 6.8 94.9 89.6 4.0 6.1 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 6 94 100 9.4 12.8 11.9 6.1 92.1 88.2 3.7 5.9 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 7 93 100 1.2 4.9 10.3 6.4 93.8 88.9 -3.9 -1.9 -0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 6 94 100 11.1 15.1 12.2 6.8 93.8 89.4 5.2 7.4 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 7 93 100 10.9 14.9 11.2 6.6 93.7 88.9 5.1 7.3 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 4 96 100 11.3 15.6 11.3 6.6 94.1 89.8 5.2 7.4 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 8 92 100 10.5 14.9 11.0 6.5 94.1 89.6 4.7 6.9 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 12 88 100 10.8 15.6 10.7 6.6 94.6 89.8 5.0 7.3 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 8 92 100 11.3 15.0 12.1 6.4 92.4 87.8 5.3 7.6 9.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 2 98 100 9.8 12.6 10.3 5.7 91.4 87.7 4.3 6.3 8.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 9 91 100 11.4 16.1 11.0 6.6 94.4 89.8 5.3 7.7 9.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 9 91 100 9.0 12.1 11.6 5.9 91.4 87.5 3.8 5.8 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 10 90 100 10.2 14.1 10.8 6.5 93.2 88.0 4.6 6.7 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 10 90 100 9.9 13.6 12.4 6.2 91.9 88.1 4.0 6.3 8.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 13 87 100 6.2 10.1 8.3 5.9 93.0 87.4 0.9 3.0 5.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 6 94 100 10.8 14.8 12.5 6.6 93.5 89.2 5.0 7.2 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 10 90 100 9.7 13.0 11.9 5.9 91.3 87.3 4.0 6.2 8.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 8 92 100 10.3 14.0 12.7 6.3 92.2 88.1 4.3 6.6 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 9 91 100 10.9 14.8 12.1 6.5 92.9 88.2 5.1 7.4 9.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 4 96 100 9.8 13.5 11.0 6.3 93.5 89.2 4.1 6.2 8.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 10 90 100 10.4 15.1 10.2 6.3 95.0 90.3 4.8 7.0 9.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 6 94 100 10.1 14.0 11.7 6.3 93.6 89.2 4.3 6.5 8.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 3 97 100 10.7 14.2 10.8 6.2 92.5 88.5 4.7 6.9 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 11 89 100 6.6 10.7 9.7 6.3 93.0 87.7 0.8 3.1 5.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 7 93 100 9.6 13.1 12.3 6.2 92.2 88.4 4.0 6.1 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------