***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.02.2014.-02.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 19 81 100 9999.0 13.9 11.2 3.3 80.7 75.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 18 82 100 11.5 13.0 11.3 3.4 82.0 76.7 5.6 8.0 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 20 80 100 12.7 14.0 11.5 3.4 80.6 75.1 6.7 9.2 11.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 25 75 100 5.8 7.0 9.2 3.2 78.7 73.4 0.3 2.7 4.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 20 80 100 12.8 13.9 9.8 3.3 79.3 73.6 7.0 9.4 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 11.4 12.7 8.2 3.3 79.0 72.7 6.4 8.6 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 18 82 100 11.1 12.6 11.1 3.4 82.3 76.9 5.4 7.7 9.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 22 78 100 2.3 3.1 8.7 3.3 79.9 73.6 -1.3 0.2 1.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 22 78 100 13.1 14.3 10.5 3.3 79.2 73.6 7.4 9.8 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 22 78 100 12.9 14.1 9.5 3.3 79.5 73.5 7.3 9.7 11.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 22 78 100 13.0 14.3 9.5 3.3 79.8 73.7 7.4 9.8 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 12.0 13.1 9.3 3.3 79.6 73.4 7.0 9.1 11.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 12.6 13.6 8.8 3.2 78.9 72.6 7.6 9.7 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 20 80 100 13.5 15.0 10.9 3.5 80.6 74.7 7.2 9.8 12.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 11.6 12.8 9.2 3.1 77.9 73.2 5.8 8.3 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 13.1 14.4 9.1 3.3 79.1 72.9 8.0 10.2 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 17 83 100 10.6 12.2 11.0 3.5 82.6 77.3 5.2 7.4 9.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 20 80 100 12.8 13.8 9.1 3.3 79.3 73.2 7.3 9.6 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 18 82 100 11.8 13.4 11.5 3.5 81.8 76.4 5.7 8.2 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 20 80 100 7.6 8.4 6.8 3.0 79.3 72.8 3.3 5.1 6.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 20 80 100 13.0 14.1 11.0 3.3 79.3 73.9 7.2 9.6 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 17 83 100 11.8 13.3 11.3 3.5 82.0 76.7 5.8 8.3 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 18 82 100 12.5 14.0 11.7 3.5 81.5 75.9 6.4 8.9 11.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 20 80 100 13.1 14.4 10.6 3.4 80.0 74.1 7.4 9.8 12.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 18 82 100 12.0 13.1 9.6 3.2 80.2 74.5 6.1 8.5 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 11.7 12.7 8.4 3.0 79.1 72.9 7.3 9.2 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 18 82 100 12.2 13.5 10.4 3.3 81.2 75.3 6.5 8.8 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 12.7 14.1 9.3 3.2 77.9 72.8 6.3 9.1 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 21 79 100 8.5 9.4 8.1 3.2 79.3 73.0 3.6 5.6 7.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 19 81 100 11.4 12.9 11.4 3.4 81.7 76.3 5.7 8.1 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------