***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.03.2014.-09.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 9999.0 13.0 11.8 2.8 76.4 71.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 12.2 13.1 11.8 2.9 77.6 73.0 7.1 9.3 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 12.8 13.6 12.0 2.7 75.1 70.5 7.6 10.0 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 5.4 6.0 10.0 2.8 74.1 69.7 0.1 2.5 4.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 12.8 13.5 10.3 2.6 73.1 68.5 7.7 10.1 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 12.1 12.8 8.7 2.7 74.4 68.5 7.0 9.4 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 12.0 13.0 11.7 2.9 78.4 73.4 6.9 9.1 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 2.3 2.8 8.9 2.4 72.3 66.8 -2.1 0.0 2.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 12.8 13.4 10.9 2.6 72.6 67.9 7.9 10.2 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 12.8 13.4 9.7 2.4 71.9 66.9 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 13.1 13.7 10.0 2.5 72.7 67.9 8.0 10.4 12.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 12.3 12.9 9.7 2.4 72.5 67.3 7.6 9.8 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 13.2 13.8 9.2 2.5 73.0 67.5 8.3 10.6 12.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 13.2 13.8 10.9 2.5 72.9 68.3 8.0 10.4 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 12.4 13.2 10.3 2.9 75.1 71.0 6.9 9.3 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 13.6 14.1 9.6 2.6 72.9 67.8 8.5 10.9 13.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 11.7 12.6 11.5 2.9 77.9 73.2 6.7 8.9 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 12.3 12.8 9.2 2.3 71.2 66.0 7.6 9.9 12.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 12.3 13.2 12.0 2.9 76.7 72.2 6.9 9.3 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 7.6 8.2 6.8 2.2 71.9 65.3 3.3 5.4 7.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 12.7 13.4 11.5 2.6 73.6 69.0 7.8 10.1 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 12.3 13.2 11.7 2.8 76.6 72.2 7.1 9.4 11.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 12.8 13.7 12.0 2.8 75.3 70.8 7.7 10.1 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 13.1 13.7 10.8 2.5 72.5 67.8 8.0 10.4 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 12.2 12.9 10.3 2.8 75.6 70.6 7.1 9.3 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 12.8 13.5 8.9 2.5 74.8 68.7 8.1 10.2 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 12.5 13.4 11.1 2.8 76.7 71.4 7.3 9.6 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 12.8 13.4 10.2 2.8 73.7 69.5 7.2 9.8 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 7.8 8.3 8.2 2.2 71.2 65.6 3.2 5.4 7.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 12.1 13.0 11.9 2.9 77.3 72.6 7.0 9.3 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------