***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.02.2014.-09.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 2 98 100 9999.0 13.4 11.7 4.7 93.3 91.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 10.4 13.1 11.5 4.7 92.5 90.6 5.4 7.2 8.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 2 98 100 11.2 14.2 12.0 4.8 93.2 91.2 6.2 8.0 9.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 4 96 100 4.2 6.3 9.3 4.2 90.0 87.9 -0.5 1.3 2.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 2 98 100 11.3 14.3 10.4 4.7 93.1 90.9 6.4 8.2 9.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 4 96 100 10.1 13.7 9.1 4.9 95.7 93.2 5.8 7.4 8.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 10.1 12.9 11.4 4.6 92.9 91.0 5.1 6.9 8.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 4 96 100 1.1 3.5 9.3 4.6 94.3 91.6 -2.2 -0.9 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 2 98 100 11.5 14.6 11.3 4.9 93.8 91.5 6.7 8.4 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 3 97 100 11.3 14.5 10.2 4.7 94.2 91.7 6.6 8.4 10.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 2 98 100 11.5 14.8 10.3 4.8 94.1 91.8 6.7 8.5 10.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 3 97 100 10.7 13.7 9.9 4.6 94.3 91.8 6.4 8.0 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 4 96 100 11.2 14.6 9.6 4.7 95.1 92.5 6.9 8.5 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 2 98 100 11.8 15.0 11.4 4.7 93.6 91.2 6.6 8.5 10.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 7 93 100 10.6 12.4 9.3 3.7 86.8 84.9 5.4 7.4 9.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 4 96 100 11.8 15.0 9.9 4.8 94.3 91.9 7.2 8.9 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 1 99 100 9.8 12.4 11.1 4.5 92.3 90.4 5.0 6.7 8.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 5 95 100 10.8 14.1 9.7 4.6 94.4 91.5 6.3 8.0 9.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 1 99 100 10.6 13.6 11.8 4.7 92.6 90.7 5.4 7.3 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 8 92 100 6.3 9.1 7.2 4.1 94.2 90.7 2.5 4.0 5.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 2 98 100 11.3 14.3 11.7 4.8 93.3 91.2 6.5 8.3 9.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 2 98 100 10.6 13.3 11.4 4.5 92.0 90.0 5.4 7.3 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 2 98 100 11.0 14.1 12.0 4.8 93.1 91.0 5.9 7.7 9.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 3 97 100 11.4 14.6 11.2 4.8 94.0 91.5 6.7 8.4 10.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 2 98 100 10.4 13.2 10.2 4.5 92.9 90.7 5.6 7.4 9.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 4 96 100 10.6 13.8 9.0 4.5 95.4 92.7 6.7 8.2 9.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 1 99 100 10.7 13.7 10.9 4.6 93.6 91.4 6.0 7.7 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 6 94 100 11.5 14.0 9.5 4.1 89.2 87.1 5.8 7.9 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 7 93 100 6.6 9.7 8.7 4.4 94.3 91.2 2.5 4.1 5.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 10.3 13.1 11.7 4.7 92.7 90.8 5.4 7.2 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------