***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.02.2014.-16.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 43 57 100 9999.0 8.6 13.7 122.8 70.9 63.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 11.1 12.3 14.5 133.5 73.9 68.1 2.4 5.2 9.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 43 57 100 14.1 14.7 13.9 121.2 70.2 63.7 2.7 6.4 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 11.3 12.6 11.9 95.3 61.9 54.1 4.6 8.7 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 10.1 11.9 12.3 100.1 62.9 55.0 4.0 7.7 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 3.7 9.0 10.7 94.8 60.4 51.9 3.4 6.4 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 8.9 10.0 14.1 133.6 73.9 67.2 2.0 4.2 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 17.9 19.7 12.8 102.8 63.1 55.4 9.9 14.9 21.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 8.8 10.7 12.6 103.4 63.6 55.4 3.5 6.9 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 12.0 13.5 13.0 102.7 62.8 55.4 5.3 9.4 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 8.8 9.6 11.4 98.4 62.1 54.2 3.1 6.3 11.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 10.5 11.4 10.9 97.5 61.6 53.8 3.5 7.4 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 10.5 11.9 12.0 102.1 63.3 54.7 3.8 7.6 13.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 46 54 100 17.2 18.6 16.2 122.9 70.5 64.5 5.5 10.0 16.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 9.2 9.3 10.0 79.9 58.5 51.5 3.6 7.0 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 8.0 9.0 11.4 99.4 62.8 54.1 2.6 5.6 10.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 9.6 11.0 14.7 139.8 75.4 69.5 2.8 5.1 8.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 10.2 13.7 15.3 111.6 66.4 60.2 4.8 8.4 13.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 11.9 13.1 14.7 131.9 73.3 67.4 2.6 5.6 10.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 10.0 15.6 19.7 126.0 70.9 63.2 4.3 8.2 13.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 8.6 12.3 13.1 111.2 66.8 59.4 2.7 6.3 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 11.2 12.8 15.9 140.9 75.5 70.0 3.8 6.4 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 10.7 11.6 14.8 126.7 71.8 65.2 3.1 5.9 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 9.4 14.3 14.9 115.7 68.0 62.0 3.5 7.4 13.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 9.8 14.3 14.4 112.5 67.5 60.1 3.0 7.0 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 3.3 9.8 12.4 106.6 65.5 56.3 2.8 5.7 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 7.8 12.3 14.4 120.2 69.9 62.6 2.6 5.8 10.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 9.4 9.9 10.4 88.4 60.2 52.4 3.1 6.7 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 18.2 24.4 17.3 119.3 69.0 62.4 10.5 16.0 22.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 10.9 12.0 14.3 130.7 73.1 67.0 2.8 5.6 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------