***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.02.2014.-23.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 5.8 8.0 90.1 57.0 44.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 2.4 6.2 8.9 103.3 62.7 47.3 2.3 4.2 6.8 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 3.4 7.4 8.4 87.6 55.8 44.0 3.5 6.2 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 4.2 7.8 9.0 82.3 53.8 42.5 4.2 7.0 10.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 3.8 7.2 8.9 77.8 50.4 40.5 3.8 7.1 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 3.0 5.5 10.7 79.8 52.4 41.0 2.8 5.2 8.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 2.2 6.1 8.9 103.8 62.6 47.3 2.0 3.9 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 6.7 10.5 9.7 73.3 45.8 36.8 7.0 11.8 17.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 3.1 5.3 8.8 74.3 46.9 38.6 3.1 6.0 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 3.4 5.8 9.8 74.2 45.7 37.7 3.5 6.8 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 3.4 5.9 8.6 75.0 48.2 37.8 3.4 6.2 10.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 3.6 5.8 8.4 71.6 46.6 36.5 3.6 6.5 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 4.2 7.2 9.2 75.1 49.9 39.2 4.0 7.2 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 3.9 7.2 10.2 80.2 49.4 39.9 4.2 7.4 11.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 2.8 6.1 8.4 83.5 55.7 43.0 2.4 4.9 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 3.1 5.8 8.6 75.3 49.8 38.3 3.2 5.8 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 2.2 6.8 8.2 99.5 61.6 47.3 2.1 4.5 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 3.9 6.3 11.3 76.9 46.2 39.0 3.6 7.2 12.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 2.6 6.6 8.9 99.9 61.2 46.5 2.6 4.7 7.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 4.9 9.3 13.8 82.3 50.2 40.5 4.8 9.3 15.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 2.7 5.6 8.0 77.2 50.1 39.8 2.7 5.6 9.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 2.5 6.9 8.7 100.9 61.8 48.3 2.5 4.7 7.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 2.6 5.7 9.0 92.4 57.5 44.3 2.8 4.7 7.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 4.8 8.0 9.9 78.2 48.4 40.2 4.9 8.3 12.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 2.8 7.0 9.4 89.5 56.8 44.9 2.7 5.5 9.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 3.9 5.9 8.4 68.9 46.9 36.6 3.9 6.4 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 3.3 7.1 9.2 93.8 58.3 46.0 3.3 5.7 8.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 2.8 6.5 8.7 81.1 53.7 41.2 2.6 5.6 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 6.6 11.1 12.2 78.7 47.1 39.0 6.4 12.3 20.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 2.2 6.4 8.8 100.8 61.4 46.5 2.1 4.3 7.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------