***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.02.2014.-02.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9999.0 6.7 8.1 82.0 55.2 41.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 3.6 7.2 8.3 86.7 55.9 41.8 3.4 6.0 9.6 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 4.4 9.8 9.0 88.2 57.2 42.6 4.2 7.8 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 4.1 11.2 10.9 90.5 58.6 42.9 4.6 8.5 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 4.0 10.0 11.0 90.9 58.6 43.0 4.4 7.8 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 4.0 11.2 13.1 102.2 63.2 47.8 4.3 7.6 12.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 3.7 6.8 8.0 82.5 53.5 41.2 3.5 6.2 9.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 8.1 15.8 12.1 95.5 60.5 46.8 8.1 12.5 17.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 3.4 8.5 10.9 88.9 57.4 42.6 3.6 6.7 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 5.2 11.0 12.3 93.9 59.4 45.5 5.4 8.8 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 3.7 8.8 10.9 97.1 61.3 44.9 3.9 6.5 9.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 4.3 11.6 10.5 94.9 61.0 45.6 4.5 8.2 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 4.5 11.8 12.0 101.5 63.5 47.4 4.8 8.2 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 5.7 12.0 11.4 88.1 57.1 44.6 5.6 9.9 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 3.4 12.0 10.3 92.4 60.2 43.6 3.6 8.0 14.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 3.5 10.4 11.3 100.0 62.6 45.0 3.8 7.1 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 4.8 9.1 8.3 90.0 57.6 43.3 4.6 7.6 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 4.9 9.5 13.4 92.6 58.6 46.8 4.7 7.6 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 3.7 7.9 8.6 88.4 57.0 42.4 3.6 6.5 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 5.2 11.3 15.9 97.5 61.1 49.9 4.9 8.3 12.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 3.7 8.8 9.6 87.3 57.1 42.0 3.9 7.2 11.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 4.4 9.1 8.7 91.9 59.1 44.3 4.4 7.2 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 3.5 7.1 9.1 88.3 57.5 43.1 3.3 5.8 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 4.9 9.8 11.4 89.0 57.2 44.7 4.7 8.0 12.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 3.3 7.8 9.9 83.4 55.5 42.5 2.8 6.3 11.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 3.8 11.2 11.3 98.6 63.1 48.4 3.9 7.4 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 3.6 7.2 9.1 82.4 54.9 42.8 3.2 6.2 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 3.0 9.6 11.1 96.2 61.4 43.8 3.4 6.6 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 7.5 14.9 14.4 94.8 59.6 48.4 7.1 11.7 17.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 4.2 8.2 8.3 85.1 55.3 41.5 3.9 7.0 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------