***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.03.2014.-09.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9999.0 7.9 9.3 104.8 64.8 48.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 3.1 7.5 8.7 89.8 59.5 45.5 3.0 5.6 9.3 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 3.5 10.3 8.9 97.4 61.5 47.1 3.2 6.8 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 4.6 10.8 9.8 100.1 62.6 47.8 4.7 7.8 11.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 3.3 10.1 10.0 103.9 63.5 47.7 3.2 6.4 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 3.3 7.2 10.0 91.5 58.3 45.6 3.2 5.6 8.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 2.6 6.4 8.5 89.0 59.0 45.2 2.6 4.9 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 8.2 18.3 11.2 102.5 63.0 47.2 8.0 13.2 19.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 2.8 8.1 10.2 106.4 64.2 47.6 2.7 5.1 8.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 3.3 9.2 11.1 103.9 63.2 47.6 3.0 5.9 10.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 3.3 8.6 9.6 104.0 64.0 47.5 3.1 5.7 9.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 3.0 7.3 9.5 100.6 62.6 46.4 2.8 5.0 8.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 8.2 8.3 9.5 95.4 59.8 45.9 3.3 6.1 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 5.6 14.1 11.2 95.2 60.1 46.5 5.0 10.0 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 3.1 8.6 9.1 98.0 63.1 47.0 2.8 5.5 9.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 7.0 7.4 9.1 97.9 61.5 47.1 2.4 4.9 8.6 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 1.9 4.6 8.3 84.9 57.2 43.4 2.0 3.7 6.0 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 3.1 8.6 12.3 99.7 61.0 47.4 2.9 5.8 10.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 3.7 8.6 8.7 91.3 59.8 45.7 3.6 6.5 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 3.8 9.3 14.7 99.2 61.1 47.5 3.7 6.6 10.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 3.3 9.5 9.4 104.0 63.4 46.7 3.3 6.2 10.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 2.5 5.9 8.4 85.2 56.8 42.8 2.7 4.8 7.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 3.3 8.4 9.1 94.4 60.6 46.3 3.2 6.0 9.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 4.8 11.9 10.8 97.8 60.6 46.9 4.5 8.5 14.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 2.5 8.4 10.6 103.4 63.6 48.5 2.4 5.1 9.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 2.8 7.1 10.3 100.1 61.8 47.2 2.6 4.9 8.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 2.5 8.1 10.3 103.1 63.9 49.2 2.3 4.8 8.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 2.8 7.7 9.1 97.9 62.2 47.6 2.4 5.0 8.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 5.9 13.9 13.3 97.8 60.3 47.4 5.6 10.2 16.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 3.1 8.1 8.7 92.6 60.4 46.5 3.0 5.7 9.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------