***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.02.2014.-09.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 31.6 39.1 100.8 57.9 53.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 32.6 34.6 40.3 104.3 60.5 55.3 20.6 28.8 38.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 44.8 43.9 40.2 99.5 56.6 52.0 26.7 38.5 52.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 46.4 41.7 41.5 91.9 50.8 47.1 30.4 41.3 53.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 45.4 41.2 42.2 92.8 50.7 47.1 30.4 40.7 52.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 37.8 32.1 44.5 91.9 48.5 45.4 24.2 33.0 42.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 29.9 31.0 39.4 103.0 59.5 54.4 18.5 26.1 34.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 70.6 64.6 45.9 92.9 49.9 47.1 52.8 64.9 77.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 39.4 34.8 42.4 92.7 49.9 46.2 26.2 34.8 44.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 47.3 42.3 46.2 93.1 49.7 46.7 33.4 42.5 52.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 38.0 33.6 40.4 93.1 50.5 46.9 24.3 33.4 43.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 43.9 38.0 39.3 90.6 48.3 45.6 29.6 38.9 49.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 44.8 40.5 42.7 93.3 50.8 47.7 30.3 40.0 50.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 57.7 54.4 49.0 96.9 53.9 49.8 39.6 51.5 64.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 39.8 31.9 37.8 87.9 49.5 45.4 19.4 32.3 48.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 25.1 34.2 40.4 92.9 50.6 46.8 25.1 33.8 43.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 30.8 33.0 39.5 104.7 60.8 55.4 20.1 27.6 35.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 45.0 40.9 52.3 94.7 51.0 48.0 30.4 40.2 51.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 36.4 38.1 40.9 104.0 60.2 54.8 24.3 32.5 41.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 48.5 48.7 64.1 100.9 56.6 53.1 32.5 43.6 56.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 42.1 38.2 40.2 95.1 52.9 48.6 25.2 36.1 48.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 33.1 35.8 41.7 106.2 61.8 56.3 22.3 29.9 38.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 32.8 33.1 42.1 101.5 58.2 52.8 21.0 28.8 37.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 50.5 46.4 46.9 95.2 52.0 48.5 34.2 45.1 57.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 42.5 40.4 44.3 97.5 55.2 51.1 24.1 36.1 50.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 38.4 35.8 42.4 93.0 51.5 49.3 27.7 35.0 43.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 36.4 36.2 42.9 100.4 57.4 52.8 21.6 31.2 42.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 40.0 33.3 39.4 90.7 50.3 46.2 21.7 33.3 47.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 72.4 69.0 57.3 97.3 53.5 50.2 51.9 66.0 81.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 35.4 37.0 40.1 103.3 59.7 54.7 22.5 31.2 41.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------