***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.02.2020.-16.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 4 96 100 9.6 10.5 9.0 4.0 81.9 81.0 3.8 6.0 8.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 3 97 100 9.1 10.0 9.4 4.4 82.4 81.6 3.0 5.3 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 3 97 100 9.9 11.0 9.7 4.4 83.4 82.3 3.6 5.9 8.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 10 90 100 3.1 4.2 5.8 3.9 81.8 80.2 -2.7 -0.4 1.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 18 82 100 9.3 10.1 7.1 3.4 78.7 77.2 3.9 6.1 8.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 92 8 100 5.9 7.2 3.8 1.4 63.4 62.3 3.6 5.6 7.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 3 97 100 8.6 9.2 9.0 4.0 80.4 79.6 2.6 4.8 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 42 58 100 -0.3 0.2 4.9 2.3 71.2 69.1 -3.7 -2.0 -0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 15 85 100 9.8 11.0 8.6 3.8 81.5 79.8 4.0 6.3 8.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 8.8 9.6 6.4 3.0 75.6 73.8 4.0 6.2 8.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 21 79 100 9.4 10.1 7.5 3.3 77.2 75.5 4.1 6.3 8.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 8.2 8.9 6.0 2.6 73.7 71.5 3.9 5.9 7.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 48 52 100 8.3 8.8 6.3 2.2 69.7 68.2 4.3 6.4 8.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 6 94 100 10.0 11.7 9.3 4.6 85.1 83.5 3.9 6.2 8.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 8 92 100 9.1 10.6 8.5 4.4 84.3 82.9 3.1 5.4 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 9.4 9.9 6.4 2.8 73.7 72.2 4.7 6.8 8.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 5 95 100 8.4 9.2 8.9 4.1 81.7 80.7 2.8 4.9 6.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 8.2 9.1 5.9 3.1 77.0 75.0 3.6 5.7 7.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 2 98 100 9.2 10.3 9.6 4.6 83.4 82.5 2.9 5.2 7.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 4.3 4.9 3.5 2.4 73.1 70.8 0.7 2.4 4.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 10 90 100 9.8 11.0 9.3 3.9 82.3 80.8 3.9 6.2 8.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 3 97 100 9.2 10.5 9.5 4.5 84.3 83.2 3.1 5.4 7.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 2 98 100 9.3 10.6 9.8 4.6 84.1 83.1 3.1 5.4 7.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 13 87 100 9.9 11.2 8.6 4.0 82.1 80.4 3.9 6.3 8.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 6 94 100 8.9 9.7 7.9 3.7 81.3 80.1 3.2 5.4 7.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 90 10 100 6.6 7.6 4.1 1.1 61.9 60.5 4.4 6.3 8.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 6 94 100 9.6 10.2 8.3 3.5 80.1 79.2 3.7 5.9 8.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 15 85 100 9.6 10.8 6.9 3.9 80.9 79.4 3.6 6.0 8.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 4.6 5.4 5.1 2.8 75.6 73.4 0.0 2.1 4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 2 98 100 9.0 9.8 9.4 4.3 82.2 81.5 2.9 5.2 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------