***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.02.2020.-23.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 9.9 10.9 10.3 3.1 79.1 71.9 5.2 7.2 9.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 19 81 100 9.3 10.3 10.4 3.3 79.7 73.5 4.1 6.3 8.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 9.9 10.8 10.7 3.0 77.2 70.6 4.8 7.1 9.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 24 76 100 3.2 5.0 8.0 3.6 82.6 72.6 -1.9 0.3 2.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 9.9 10.9 8.9 2.8 76.7 68.6 4.8 7.1 9.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 3.6 8.1 6.2 1.5 65.6 59.5 4.0 6.1 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 19 81 100 8.9 10.0 10.2 3.2 79.9 73.6 3.7 5.9 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 0.4 0.9 7.4 2.4 73.7 65.3 -3.9 -1.9 -0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 10.2 11.0 9.8 2.8 76.4 68.6 5.2 7.4 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 9.8 10.3 8.2 2.4 72.6 65.4 5.1 7.3 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 10.1 10.8 8.9 2.5 73.9 66.5 5.2 7.4 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 9.6 10.3 8.2 2.4 74.5 66.1 4.7 6.9 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 9.8 9.7 7.7 1.8 68.0 62.3 5.0 7.3 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 10.5 11.5 10.3 3.2 77.7 70.6 5.3 7.6 9.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 20 80 100 9.2 11.1 9.8 3.9 84.8 74.7 4.3 6.3 8.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 10.4 10.8 8.1 2.3 72.4 65.2 5.3 7.7 9.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 19 81 100 8.7 9.8 10.2 3.4 81.0 74.3 3.8 5.8 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 9.4 10.1 8.2 2.7 75.5 67.2 4.6 6.7 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 9.5 10.5 10.6 3.3 78.8 72.7 4.0 6.3 8.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 5.6 6.5 6.0 2.6 76.6 66.6 0.9 3.0 5.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 9.8 10.9 10.4 2.9 76.8 69.2 5.0 7.2 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 17 83 100 9.4 10.6 10.6 3.4 81.0 74.4 4.0 6.2 8.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 9.7 10.5 10.7 3.1 77.2 71.3 4.3 6.6 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 10.1 11.0 9.9 2.9 76.5 68.9 5.1 7.4 9.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 8.9 10.2 9.1 3.1 79.6 71.1 4.1 6.2 8.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 9.4 9.5 6.7 1.7 69.3 62.3 4.8 7.0 9.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 9.2 10.5 9.7 3.0 79.2 71.5 4.3 6.5 8.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 9.8 11.4 8.6 3.5 81.2 71.5 4.7 6.9 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 5.8 6.8 7.5 2.8 76.6 67.5 0.8 3.1 5.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 21 79 100 9.1 10.1 10.4 3.2 79.2 72.9 4.0 6.1 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------