***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.02.2020.-01.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 11.8 11.3 9.2 1.7 65.0 62.2 6.7 9.1 11.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 10.8 10.3 9.4 1.8 66.2 63.5 5.6 8.0 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 12.0 11.2 9.6 1.6 63.7 61.5 6.7 9.2 11.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 5.4 4.8 6.9 1.8 65.3 61.5 0.3 2.7 4.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 12.0 11.1 7.7 1.4 62.1 59.4 7.0 9.4 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 5.9 9.7 5.7 0.9 58.3 55.8 6.4 8.6 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 10.3 9.9 9.3 1.8 66.3 63.5 5.4 7.7 9.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 0.9 1.1 6.5 1.2 60.8 58.2 -1.3 0.2 1.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 12.5 11.4 8.2 1.4 61.5 59.3 7.4 9.8 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 10.7 11.1 7.1 1.2 60.3 58.1 7.3 9.7 11.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 10.8 11.2 7.5 1.2 60.5 58.1 7.4 9.8 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 10.0 10.4 7.2 1.2 60.3 57.8 7.0 9.1 11.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 10.7 10.8 6.4 1.0 58.9 56.6 7.6 9.7 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 10.8 11.6 8.4 1.4 61.6 59.9 7.2 9.8 12.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 11.1 11.0 7.9 2.0 67.5 63.1 5.8 8.3 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 11.2 11.6 7.0 1.2 60.2 57.6 8.0 10.2 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 9.9 9.5 9.3 1.8 66.0 63.3 5.2 7.4 9.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 10.5 11.0 6.9 1.3 60.6 58.5 7.3 9.6 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 11.1 10.5 9.5 1.8 65.3 62.9 5.7 8.2 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 7.0 6.5 4.8 1.4 63.2 59.7 3.3 5.1 6.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 10.5 11.3 8.9 1.5 62.4 60.1 7.2 9.6 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 11.0 10.5 9.4 1.7 65.6 63.0 5.8 8.3 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 11.7 10.8 9.6 1.6 63.5 61.5 6.4 8.9 11.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 10.7 11.4 8.2 1.4 61.3 59.5 7.4 9.8 12.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 11.0 10.6 7.7 1.7 64.8 61.5 6.1 8.5 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 10.0 10.6 6.5 1.2 62.0 58.8 7.3 9.2 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 11.3 10.9 8.6 1.7 65.1 62.1 6.5 8.8 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 12.2 11.6 7.2 1.8 64.8 61.0 6.3 9.1 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 6.5 7.0 6.2 1.3 61.1 58.7 3.6 5.6 7.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 10.8 10.3 9.3 1.8 65.9 63.3 5.7 8.1 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------