***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.03.2020.-08.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 10.3 9.2 8.9 0.0 49.8 49.2 6.8 9.3 11.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 10.2 9.6 9.1 0.2 52.1 50.8 7.1 9.3 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 11.0 9.8 9.2 -0.1 49.1 48.6 7.6 10.0 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 3.5 2.2 6.1 -0.3 47.8 47.3 0.1 2.5 4.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 7.1 9.4 7.0 -0.6 45.0 45.2 7.7 10.1 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 6.2 8.4 5.0 -0.8 42.7 42.7 7.0 9.4 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 9.9 9.3 9.1 0.2 52.1 50.6 6.9 9.1 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 -2.8 -0.6 6.0 -0.6 44.7 44.5 -2.1 0.0 2.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 7.0 9.5 7.6 -0.6 44.7 45.0 7.9 10.2 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 7.2 9.6 6.6 -0.7 44.2 44.3 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 7.2 9.6 6.9 -0.7 44.1 44.3 8.0 10.4 12.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 6.9 9.1 6.7 -0.6 44.4 44.4 7.6 9.8 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 7.8 9.7 5.8 -0.8 43.1 43.5 8.3 10.6 12.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 7.6 10.3 8.2 -0.2 48.7 48.0 8.0 10.4 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 10.3 9.4 7.0 0.1 50.6 49.7 6.9 9.3 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 7.9 10.0 6.4 -0.7 43.8 44.0 8.5 10.9 13.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 9.7 9.2 9.1 0.3 53.0 51.1 6.7 8.9 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 6.8 9.3 6.6 -0.5 45.6 45.3 7.6 9.9 12.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 10.3 9.5 9.2 0.2 51.5 50.5 6.9 9.3 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 2.9 5.1 4.3 -0.3 47.3 46.6 3.3 5.4 7.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 7.3 9.6 8.4 -0.4 46.3 46.3 7.8 10.1 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 10.4 9.8 9.2 0.3 53.1 51.3 7.1 9.4 11.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 11.0 10.1 9.4 0.0 50.3 49.6 7.7 10.1 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 7.4 10.0 7.9 -0.3 47.1 46.7 8.0 10.4 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 10.2 9.1 7.1 -0.2 48.5 48.1 7.1 9.3 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 7.6 9.6 5.8 -0.5 44.9 44.9 8.1 10.2 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 10.6 9.6 8.2 0.0 49.6 48.9 7.3 9.6 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 10.8 9.4 6.3 -0.3 47.5 47.1 7.2 9.8 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 2.6 4.9 5.8 -0.4 46.2 45.8 3.2 5.4 7.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 10.1 9.4 9.0 0.2 51.5 50.5 7.0 9.3 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------