***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.02.2020.-08.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 10.1 10.6 9.4 2.2 75.2 70.5 6.1 7.9 9.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 9.5 10.2 9.6 2.4 77.0 72.7 5.4 7.2 8.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 10.2 10.8 9.8 2.2 74.8 70.1 6.2 8.0 9.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 3.2 4.0 6.7 2.3 75.7 69.3 -0.5 1.3 2.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 10.2 10.4 7.7 1.8 70.9 65.7 6.4 8.2 9.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 5.6 8.3 5.2 0.8 59.6 56.5 5.8 7.4 8.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 9.0 9.8 9.4 2.3 76.4 72.2 5.1 6.9 8.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 0.5 0.3 6.2 1.3 66.9 61.8 -2.2 -0.9 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 10.4 10.7 8.5 1.8 71.8 66.4 6.7 8.4 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 10.3 10.2 7.1 1.5 67.9 62.9 6.6 8.4 10.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 10.4 10.5 7.7 1.6 68.9 64.0 6.7 8.5 10.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 9.9 9.6 7.0 1.4 67.7 62.7 6.4 8.0 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 10.3 9.8 6.5 1.1 63.3 59.6 6.9 8.5 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 10.7 11.5 9.0 2.3 75.3 69.8 6.6 8.5 10.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 9.8 10.9 8.3 2.6 78.5 72.0 5.4 7.4 9.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 10.8 10.6 7.0 1.4 66.8 62.3 7.2 8.9 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 8.8 9.7 9.4 2.4 77.4 72.9 5.0 6.7 8.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 9.9 10.0 6.9 1.7 69.8 64.3 6.3 8.0 9.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 9.7 10.4 9.8 2.4 76.6 72.2 5.4 7.3 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 5.6 5.7 4.6 1.5 70.3 64.0 2.5 4.0 5.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 10.2 10.7 9.2 2.0 72.9 67.7 6.5 8.3 9.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 9.7 10.7 9.7 2.5 78.2 73.6 5.4 7.3 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 10.1 10.7 9.9 2.3 75.6 71.0 5.9 7.7 9.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 10.4 10.8 8.7 2.0 72.9 67.4 6.7 8.4 10.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 9.4 10.0 7.9 2.1 74.6 69.2 5.6 7.4 9.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 9.8 9.2 5.8 0.9 62.4 58.6 6.7 8.2 9.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 9.8 10.3 8.7 2.0 74.5 69.7 6.0 7.7 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 10.4 11.2 7.3 2.2 74.7 68.5 5.8 7.9 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 5.8 5.9 6.2 1.6 70.1 64.4 2.5 4.1 5.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 9.4 10.1 9.5 2.4 76.3 72.0 5.4 7.2 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------