***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.02.2020.-16.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 10 90 100 13.8 17.7 21.4 176.3 82.4 79.8 2.3 5.0 9.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 12 88 100 13.2 17.2 19.3 180.6 82.8 79.4 2.4 5.2 9.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 15 85 100 18.0 22.2 20.2 164.9 80.5 77.0 2.7 6.4 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 16.5 19.9 22.9 147.0 76.9 72.2 4.6 8.7 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 19 81 100 17.3 21.0 23.3 160.5 79.9 75.7 4.0 7.7 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 12.2 14.0 20.2 138.5 74.9 69.5 3.4 6.4 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 12 88 100 10.7 14.5 18.9 186.6 83.7 80.1 2.0 4.2 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 23.0 25.4 23.4 138.4 74.9 69.5 9.9 14.9 21.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 22 78 100 14.8 17.8 21.7 156.4 79.1 74.2 3.5 6.9 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 17.9 21.6 24.7 153.5 78.9 73.3 5.3 9.4 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 13.8 16.4 22.4 149.2 77.6 72.3 3.1 6.3 11.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 15.6 18.0 21.0 137.1 74.6 69.8 3.5 7.4 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 21 79 100 17.0 18.5 23.4 144.7 76.5 72.3 3.8 7.6 13.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 19.9 23.9 23.7 153.9 78.7 73.4 5.5 10.0 16.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 89 11 100 8.1 12.5 16.1 109.1 67.9 62.0 3.6 7.0 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 23 77 100 13.3 14.9 22.0 146.4 76.9 72.4 2.6 5.6 10.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 22 78 100 10.4 13.5 17.6 174.6 81.7 77.4 2.8 5.1 8.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 16.4 19.7 24.8 152.6 78.8 73.0 4.8 8.4 13.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 12 88 100 14.4 18.6 19.8 177.1 82.4 78.8 2.6 5.6 10.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 14.9 15.6 24.9 125.3 71.0 65.4 4.3 8.2 13.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 15.9 20.0 20.9 156.2 79.0 74.7 2.7 6.3 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 20 80 100 12.3 14.8 18.2 166.9 80.6 76.2 3.8 6.4 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 15 85 100 12.9 16.0 20.7 171.5 81.7 77.4 3.1 5.9 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 23 77 100 17.5 21.6 22.6 155.7 79.3 73.9 3.5 7.4 13.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 13 87 100 19.9 26.1 24.7 173.9 82.2 79.3 3.0 7.0 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 45 55 100 10.9 11.3 18.9 119.6 69.8 65.7 2.8 5.7 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 12 88 100 15.5 20.7 22.6 180.5 83.1 80.3 2.6 5.8 10.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 87 13 100 8.3 15.4 19.2 128.7 72.5 66.6 3.1 6.7 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 25.4 28.6 24.6 141.9 75.9 70.0 10.5 16.0 22.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 13 87 100 13.1 16.9 19.8 179.7 82.8 79.7 2.8 5.6 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------