***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.02.2020.-23.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 75 25 0 100 3.0 3.5 4.2 38.2 30.6 23.3 3.8 6.1 8.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 76 24 0 100 1.7 2.1 3.7 37.2 31.0 23.8 2.3 4.2 6.8 30 Becej 27400G00 75 25 0 100 2.6 3.5 4.6 42.6 33.0 25.6 3.5 6.2 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 79 21 0 100 3.1 3.9 4.8 37.8 30.2 21.3 4.2 7.0 10.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 76 24 0 100 2.8 3.1 4.7 38.3 28.4 22.0 3.8 7.1 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 79 21 0 100 1.9 2.4 5.0 43.8 29.8 22.9 2.8 5.2 8.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 77 23 0 100 1.4 1.5 3.3 33.4 27.9 22.1 2.0 3.9 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 82 18 0 100 4.8 5.6 5.1 38.7 27.1 21.3 7.0 11.8 17.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 73 27 0 100 2.5 2.9 5.3 43.0 30.8 25.1 3.1 6.0 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 76 24 0 100 2.6 2.9 5.2 41.0 29.5 23.2 3.5 6.8 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 78 22 0 100 2.4 2.9 5.0 41.5 29.0 23.3 3.4 6.2 10.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 81 19 0 100 2.3 2.8 4.7 39.2 27.6 21.8 3.6 6.5 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 75 25 0 100 3.0 3.5 5.0 42.1 29.8 23.4 4.0 7.2 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 73 27 0 100 3.3 4.1 6.1 45.8 32.5 26.0 4.2 7.4 11.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 79 21 0 100 1.7 2.6 4.8 39.4 35.1 23.4 2.4 4.9 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 78 22 0 100 2.3 2.8 4.9 42.1 29.4 23.5 3.2 5.8 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 75 25 0 100 1.6 1.8 3.5 37.1 29.9 22.3 2.1 4.5 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 74 26 0 100 2.9 3.3 6.0 45.4 31.2 25.1 3.6 7.2 12.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 75 25 0 100 1.9 2.3 4.0 38.8 31.0 24.0 2.6 4.7 7.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 81 19 0 100 3.1 4.1 7.1 42.5 29.3 22.9 4.8 9.3 15.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 2.2 2.6 5.1 43.1 32.3 25.4 2.7 5.6 9.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 75 25 0 100 1.9 2.2 3.8 38.4 29.8 22.8 2.5 4.7 7.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 74 26 0 100 2.2 2.6 4.3 40.4 31.2 24.2 2.8 4.7 7.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 73 27 0 100 3.9 4.9 6.0 47.1 33.3 26.6 4.9 8.3 12.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 76 24 0 100 2.0 2.0 4.7 37.0 27.9 21.6 2.7 5.5 9.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 84 16 0 100 2.6 3.0 4.4 35.5 25.8 19.9 3.9 6.4 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 76 24 0 100 2.5 2.9 4.5 37.9 29.8 23.0 3.3 5.7 8.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 81 19 0 100 1.7 2.5 4.6 37.9 31.7 21.6 2.6 5.6 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 74 26 0 100 4.9 5.8 6.4 45.2 31.0 24.9 6.4 12.3 20.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 75 25 0 100 1.6 2.0 3.8 37.7 31.5 24.4 2.1 4.3 7.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------