***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.02.2020.-01.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 3.2 5.5 8.0 67.6 46.5 37.0 3.2 6.3 10.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 3.0 5.8 6.7 68.2 48.7 35.6 3.4 6.0 9.6 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 4.5 7.4 8.5 69.5 48.0 37.5 4.2 7.8 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 4.3 8.6 10.2 73.4 50.4 39.6 4.6 8.5 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 4.1 7.5 10.0 72.7 48.9 39.2 4.4 7.8 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 3.9 8.1 10.3 80.0 52.0 41.4 4.3 7.6 12.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 3.0 5.8 6.4 67.1 47.9 34.8 3.5 6.2 9.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 7.1 13.1 11.2 79.6 52.1 41.0 8.1 12.5 17.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 3.6 6.8 11.0 76.3 50.2 40.4 3.6 6.7 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 4.9 9.0 11.5 78.3 51.2 40.7 5.4 8.8 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 3.5 6.7 9.8 76.7 50.6 40.1 3.9 6.5 9.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 4.1 8.7 9.8 78.7 51.7 40.6 4.5 8.2 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 4.6 8.4 10.0 77.4 50.7 40.9 4.8 8.2 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 5.8 9.5 11.1 73.3 48.9 38.8 5.6 9.9 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 3.6 9.3 9.6 73.7 53.4 39.2 3.6 8.0 14.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 3.7 7.3 9.7 77.6 51.0 41.2 3.8 7.1 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 3.9 7.2 6.1 66.6 48.0 33.9 4.6 7.6 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 4.4 8.0 12.2 79.7 51.8 41.5 4.7 7.6 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 3.2 6.1 7.1 68.7 48.5 36.1 3.6 6.5 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 4.3 8.8 13.8 77.4 51.6 41.0 4.9 8.3 12.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 4.1 6.7 9.7 71.6 48.3 38.7 3.9 7.2 11.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 3.8 6.9 6.6 67.5 48.3 35.0 4.4 7.2 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 3.1 5.4 8.0 69.3 47.9 36.6 3.3 5.8 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 4.8 8.2 11.0 76.6 50.7 40.3 4.7 8.0 12.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 3.0 5.5 9.5 69.2 46.9 38.5 2.8 6.3 11.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 3.5 7.2 9.3 71.5 49.2 38.1 3.9 7.4 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 3.1 5.4 8.4 67.7 46.3 37.6 3.2 6.2 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 3.3 7.3 10.0 76.8 52.7 40.3 3.4 6.6 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 6.5 12.4 12.9 80.6 52.3 41.9 7.1 11.7 17.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 3.6 6.6 7.0 67.2 47.8 35.6 3.9 7.0 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------