***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.03.2020.-08.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 2.8 6.0 8.5 75.9 53.0 40.2 2.7 5.4 9.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 3.1 5.1 6.6 65.7 47.2 36.4 3.0 5.6 9.3 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 3.4 8.2 9.1 81.6 55.2 42.0 3.2 6.8 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 4.6 10.7 11.5 96.9 62.1 44.2 4.7 7.8 11.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 3.6 9.9 11.8 99.9 63.0 45.8 3.2 6.4 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 3.3 9.2 13.8 112.8 67.3 49.9 3.2 5.6 8.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 2.7 4.3 6.3 63.1 46.2 35.2 2.6 4.9 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 8.0 18.8 13.4 103.8 64.1 48.4 8.0 13.2 19.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 3.0 7.8 12.4 100.1 63.1 47.2 2.7 5.1 8.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 3.3 9.4 13.5 103.1 63.9 48.6 3.0 5.9 10.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 3.1 8.9 12.1 105.3 64.9 47.5 3.1 5.7 9.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 2.9 7.9 12.3 106.5 65.4 48.3 2.8 5.0 8.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 8.2 9.9 13.2 107.5 65.7 49.0 3.3 6.1 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 5.1 12.2 12.0 82.7 55.5 44.4 5.0 10.0 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 2.7 8.5 11.1 97.9 62.8 42.6 2.8 5.5 9.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 2.6 8.6 12.5 108.6 66.1 48.4 2.4 4.9 8.6 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 2.0 3.1 5.9 60.5 44.6 33.9 2.0 3.7 6.0 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 3.2 9.1 14.1 100.1 62.5 49.7 2.9 5.8 10.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 3.7 6.4 7.3 70.1 49.5 38.2 3.6 6.5 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 3.7 9.2 16.3 95.6 60.6 48.3 3.7 6.6 10.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 3.5 8.8 11.0 94.3 60.9 45.3 3.3 6.2 10.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 2.7 4.1 6.3 61.2 45.1 34.9 2.7 4.8 7.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 3.0 6.6 8.6 76.2 52.7 41.0 3.2 6.0 9.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 4.9 11.6 12.2 92.2 59.8 47.2 4.5 8.5 14.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 2.8 6.7 10.5 84.7 56.8 42.5 2.4 5.1 9.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 2.8 7.4 12.6 99.6 62.9 46.7 2.6 4.9 8.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 2.5 5.4 9.0 76.4 52.6 40.0 2.3 4.8 8.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 2.5 8.6 11.8 105.0 65.1 45.7 2.4 5.0 8.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 5.7 14.3 14.7 97.3 61.3 49.3 5.6 10.2 16.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 3.0 5.6 7.1 68.5 49.2 37.7 3.0 5.7 9.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------