***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.02.2020.-08.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 35.2 31.9 42.2 91.0 51.4 47.3 21.5 30.9 42.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 32.6 29.1 36.2 89.6 50.6 46.7 20.6 28.8 38.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 44.8 39.6 42.4 91.2 51.3 46.7 26.7 38.5 52.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 29.5 42.5 49.4 91.5 51.9 46.2 30.4 41.3 53.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 46.4 42.9 49.8 95.2 53.4 48.1 30.4 40.7 52.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 37.8 35.0 49.3 96.5 53.8 48.7 24.2 33.0 42.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 29.9 26.0 34.8 88.3 49.7 45.7 18.5 26.1 34.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 52.0 65.7 53.1 93.3 51.0 46.7 52.8 64.9 77.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 39.6 36.5 50.4 95.1 53.1 47.7 26.2 34.8 44.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 47.5 45.0 54.8 97.1 54.1 48.9 33.4 42.5 52.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 38.2 35.4 49.3 96.0 53.8 48.3 24.3 33.4 43.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 44.3 39.9 47.8 93.3 51.4 46.7 29.6 38.9 49.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 45.5 42.9 51.5 96.9 54.4 49.5 30.3 40.0 50.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 58.2 51.0 52.9 90.7 49.3 45.3 39.6 51.5 64.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 17.9 30.3 41.6 81.1 47.7 41.3 19.4 32.3 48.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 38.5 36.4 49.1 96.8 54.6 49.2 25.1 33.8 43.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 31.3 26.8 33.1 86.1 48.4 44.1 20.1 27.6 35.9 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 30.0 42.6 57.1 96.9 53.6 49.2 30.4 40.2 51.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 36.4 33.0 38.2 90.6 51.1 47.1 24.3 32.5 41.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 31.6 41.4 62.1 87.7 46.5 44.1 32.5 43.6 56.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 41.9 37.6 46.6 92.7 52.0 47.0 25.2 36.1 48.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 33.6 28.7 34.9 85.4 47.7 44.0 22.3 29.9 38.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 33.0 29.5 41.6 91.3 51.4 47.0 21.0 28.8 37.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 51.2 46.8 51.8 94.5 52.5 47.7 34.2 45.1 57.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 42.1 38.0 49.3 93.1 52.3 48.0 24.1 36.1 50.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 26.4 31.9 45.2 84.0 43.3 40.6 27.7 35.0 43.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 35.9 32.1 44.5 91.6 51.3 47.4 21.6 31.2 42.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 20.8 33.9 45.6 89.0 50.9 44.7 21.7 33.3 47.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 51.5 66.9 58.5 93.7 50.9 47.6 51.9 66.0 81.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 35.2 31.7 37.7 90.0 51.0 47.0 22.5 31.2 41.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------