***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.02.2013.-10.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 9999.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 69.0 66.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 1.2 66.2 64.3 -2.8 -1.5 -0.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 2.2 2.0 0.1 1.2 67.9 65.7 -0.5 0.7 1.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 -4.7 -4.1 -2.1 0.9 62.7 61.2 -6.6 -5.2 -3.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 -0.6 -0.8 -1.5 1.2 67.3 65.0 -3.0 -1.9 -0.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 -1.5 -1.8 -3.6 0.8 63.3 61.7 -3.6 -2.6 -1.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 0.1 0.0 0.1 1.3 67.0 65.1 -2.5 -1.2 0.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 -6.4 -6.8 -3.1 0.9 64.0 62.1 -9.0 -7.8 -6.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 0.4 0.3 -0.9 1.3 68.6 66.0 -2.1 -1.0 0.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 0.2 -0.1 -2.4 1.1 65.4 63.2 -2.1 -1.0 0.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 0.1 0.0 -1.7 1.3 69.2 66.8 -2.3 -1.3 -0.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 -1.2 -1.3 -2.2 1.2 67.2 65.0 -3.5 -2.4 -1.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 -0.4 -0.6 -2.5 1.0 66.0 64.1 -2.7 -1.6 -0.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 0.6 0.3 -1.2 1.0 64.7 62.9 -1.7 -0.6 0.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 -0.6 -0.1 -1.5 0.9 63.1 61.7 -2.2 -1.0 0.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 0.6 0.4 -2.1 1.2 67.9 65.8 -1.7 -0.7 0.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 -0.9 -0.3 -0.2 1.0 63.4 62.0 -2.7 -1.3 -0.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 -2.0 -2.5 -3.2 0.8 61.9 60.5 -4.2 -3.2 -2.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 0.0 -0.2 0.1 1.2 66.8 64.8 -2.7 -1.4 -0.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 -5.8 -5.7 -5.0 0.5 57.9 57.3 -7.7 -6.3 -5.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 0.1 0.0 -0.1 1.3 68.2 65.7 -2.4 -1.3 -0.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 43 57 100 -0.4 -0.7 -0.1 0.9 63.3 61.9 -2.9 -1.6 -0.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 -0.3 -0.5 -0.1 1.2 67.9 65.7 -2.7 -1.6 -0.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 -0.1 -0.4 -1.4 1.0 65.1 63.2 -2.4 -1.4 -0.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 -0.3 -0.4 -1.1 1.1 66.5 64.2 -2.5 -1.4 -0.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 -0.5 -0.7 -2.6 0.8 63.8 62.3 -2.5 -1.5 -0.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 0.3 0.2 -0.2 1.3 68.4 65.9 -2.4 -1.1 0.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 -2.1 -1.6 -1.8 0.9 63.3 61.9 -3.5 -2.4 -1.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 -2.6 -3.4 -4.0 0.7 60.0 59.1 -5.3 -4.1 -2.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 0.4 0.3 0.2 1.3 67.4 65.4 -2.4 -1.1 0.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------