***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.02.2013.-24.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 4.5 7.0 0.0 50.0 50.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 7.4 6.5 6.5 -0.1 49.1 49.9 4.4 6.6 8.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 8.3 7.0 7.0 -0.2 47.5 48.7 5.1 7.3 9.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 -2.2 0.2 5.1 -0.3 47.5 47.8 -1.8 0.5 2.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 8.4 6.8 5.7 -0.4 46.0 47.1 5.0 7.4 9.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 3.8 5.7 4.2 -0.6 43.6 44.9 4.3 6.6 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 6.9 6.1 6.5 0.0 49.9 50.6 3.9 6.1 8.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 -0.9 -3.2 4.3 -1.0 38.5 41.4 -4.0 -1.8 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 8.7 7.1 6.2 -0.5 45.1 46.7 5.4 7.7 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 5.2 6.5 5.1 -0.9 40.8 43.3 5.5 7.7 9.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 8.8 7.0 5.5 -0.5 44.4 46.0 5.5 7.8 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 8.3 6.2 5.1 -0.8 41.2 43.6 5.0 7.3 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 4.9 6.7 4.8 -0.6 42.8 44.6 5.3 7.7 9.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 5.1 6.6 5.8 -1.0 39.9 42.8 5.6 8.0 10.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 4.2 6.3 5.2 -0.2 47.9 48.1 4.5 6.6 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 9.1 7.3 5.2 -0.5 44.7 46.0 5.7 8.0 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 6.9 5.8 6.1 -0.2 47.8 48.8 4.0 6.1 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 4.5 5.6 4.4 -1.2 37.4 40.7 5.0 7.2 9.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 7.5 6.3 6.7 -0.2 47.9 48.9 4.2 6.6 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 0.7 1.0 2.1 -1.5 32.4 35.8 1.1 3.3 5.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 8.5 7.2 6.8 -0.3 47.2 48.3 5.3 7.6 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 4.0 6.0 6.2 -0.5 45.3 46.8 4.3 6.6 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 7.9 6.4 6.8 -0.5 45.5 47.1 4.6 7.0 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 5.1 6.5 5.8 -0.9 41.0 43.7 5.5 7.7 9.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 7.5 6.3 5.5 -0.2 48.4 49.0 4.3 6.5 8.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 4.7 6.4 4.6 -0.6 42.8 44.8 5.1 7.3 9.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 7.7 6.8 6.2 0.0 49.6 50.2 4.6 6.8 9.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 4.5 6.9 5.4 -0.3 47.6 47.9 4.9 7.2 9.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 0.7 1.5 3.4 -1.3 35.6 39.1 1.1 3.5 5.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 7.2 6.3 6.8 -0.1 49.5 50.2 4.2 6.4 8.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------