***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.03.2013.-10.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 8.7 9.4 -0.1 49.5 49.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 10.3 9.2 9.1 -0.2 48.2 48.2 7.2 9.4 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 7.3 9.9 9.7 -0.1 49.2 49.0 7.6 10.0 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 3.3 2.6 8.0 0.2 52.0 51.0 0.1 2.4 4.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 11.0 10.2 8.4 0.1 51.1 50.4 7.7 10.1 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 10.1 9.7 6.9 0.5 54.6 53.0 6.9 9.1 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 6.6 8.9 8.9 -0.2 47.9 47.9 7.0 9.2 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 0.8 -0.2 7.2 0.0 49.7 49.6 -2.3 -0.1 1.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 11.1 10.1 8.9 0.0 50.0 49.7 7.7 10.1 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 11.2 10.2 7.9 -0.1 49.5 49.4 7.9 10.2 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 11.2 10.4 8.2 0.1 51.0 50.5 7.9 10.2 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 10.6 9.8 8.0 0.1 50.9 50.6 7.4 9.6 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 7.8 10.8 7.5 0.3 52.5 51.6 8.2 10.5 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 7.5 10.2 8.9 -0.2 48.3 48.6 8.0 10.4 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 10.4 9.8 8.1 0.3 52.5 51.5 7.0 9.4 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 11.7 11.0 7.9 0.3 52.2 51.4 8.4 10.7 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 9.9 8.7 8.7 -0.3 47.0 47.3 6.9 9.0 11.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 10.8 9.6 7.3 -0.1 48.8 48.9 7.5 9.8 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 10.4 9.2 9.4 -0.2 48.5 48.5 7.0 9.4 11.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 6.2 5.0 5.0 -0.2 48.2 48.4 3.1 5.3 7.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 11.1 10.1 9.3 0.0 49.8 49.4 7.8 10.1 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 10.6 9.3 9.1 -0.2 47.6 47.9 7.3 9.6 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 7.4 9.9 9.6 -0.1 48.7 48.7 7.8 10.1 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 7.5 10.2 8.8 -0.1 48.8 48.8 7.9 10.3 12.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 10.4 9.5 8.0 0.0 50.3 49.4 7.2 9.4 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 7.5 10.5 7.3 0.4 53.5 52.4 7.9 10.1 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 7.0 9.6 8.6 -0.1 49.5 48.8 7.4 9.7 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 10.8 10.2 8.3 0.3 52.7 51.7 7.3 9.8 12.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 6.1 5.0 6.4 -0.1 49.1 49.1 2.9 5.1 7.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 6.8 9.2 9.3 -0.1 48.7 48.6 7.1 9.3 11.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------