***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.02.2013.-10.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 6.7 7.5 0.2 53.0 52.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 8.1 7.5 7.2 0.2 51.8 52.0 5.6 7.4 9.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 8.9 8.3 7.7 0.1 51.2 51.3 6.3 8.1 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 1.9 1.3 5.6 0.0 50.5 50.6 -0.5 1.3 2.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 9.0 8.4 6.4 0.1 51.7 51.6 6.4 8.3 9.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 5.7 7.7 5.0 0.2 52.3 52.3 5.9 7.5 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 7.7 7.3 7.1 0.2 52.7 52.7 5.2 7.0 8.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 -2.4 -1.2 5.0 -0.3 45.4 46.7 -2.1 -0.9 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 9.2 8.6 7.1 0.1 51.1 51.2 6.7 8.5 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 6.4 8.2 5.9 -0.2 47.6 48.4 6.7 8.5 10.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 9.3 8.8 6.3 0.1 51.9 51.9 6.8 8.6 10.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 6.1 7.9 5.9 -0.1 48.6 49.3 6.4 8.0 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 6.8 8.8 5.7 0.1 51.6 51.7 7.0 8.6 10.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 9.4 8.1 6.8 -0.4 45.5 46.8 6.7 8.6 10.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 8.1 7.6 6.1 0.1 51.4 51.3 5.5 7.5 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 9.7 9.3 6.0 0.2 52.9 52.8 7.3 9.0 10.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 7.5 6.9 6.8 0.0 50.1 50.5 5.1 6.9 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 6.0 7.5 5.2 -0.4 44.4 45.9 6.3 8.1 9.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 8.1 7.5 7.4 0.1 51.1 51.4 5.5 7.4 9.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 2.2 3.1 2.9 -0.7 39.1 41.5 2.6 4.0 5.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 9.1 8.5 7.5 0.1 51.4 51.4 6.6 8.3 10.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 8.2 7.3 7.0 -0.1 48.3 48.9 5.6 7.5 9.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 8.7 7.9 7.6 0.0 49.7 50.2 6.0 7.9 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 9.2 8.2 6.7 -0.2 46.8 47.9 6.8 8.5 10.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 8.2 7.6 6.1 0.1 51.8 51.6 5.7 7.5 9.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 6.5 8.3 5.2 0.0 49.7 50.3 6.8 8.3 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 8.5 8.1 6.8 0.2 53.0 52.6 6.1 7.8 9.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 8.8 8.3 6.1 0.2 52.0 51.8 5.9 8.0 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 2.1 3.5 4.3 -0.5 42.9 44.8 2.5 4.1 5.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 8.0 7.5 7.4 0.2 52.5 52.5 5.5 7.3 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------