***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.02.2013.-10.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 42 58 100 9999.0 51.3 56.0 127.8 74.9 69.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 39.8 42.3 53.3 124.8 73.8 68.0 20.3 28.0 36.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 56.4 63.9 57.1 131.2 77.0 71.1 27.5 38.6 51.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 18 82 100 62.6 70.0 66.0 141.5 80.4 75.2 32.4 43.0 54.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 22 78 100 59.6 65.5 62.6 135.1 78.8 72.6 31.3 41.7 53.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 47.0 50.2 62.0 123.7 73.6 68.9 25.0 33.8 44.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 37.0 39.0 52.8 123.0 72.8 67.3 18.2 25.7 34.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 20 80 100 85.8 96.0 70.9 141.5 82.1 75.6 53.7 65.8 78.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 50.0 55.7 62.0 133.8 78.6 72.1 26.2 35.1 44.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 22 78 100 57.5 63.5 67.3 134.8 79.7 72.9 33.5 42.4 52.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 21 79 100 50.2 55.5 60.1 136.0 78.9 72.5 25.1 34.1 44.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 56.5 63.9 62.1 139.5 80.4 73.9 30.3 39.8 50.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 56.7 61.5 62.6 130.4 76.4 71.2 32.4 42.0 52.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 68.9 75.7 67.8 129.1 77.1 71.8 39.1 50.9 64.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 17 83 100 60.7 74.1 67.4 150.0 82.0 77.9 21.1 33.5 49.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 24 76 100 50.3 54.4 60.6 133.8 77.7 72.1 27.4 35.9 45.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 37.6 39.0 51.3 123.3 72.5 66.9 19.6 26.8 34.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 57.2 64.7 74.4 133.2 79.6 72.9 30.4 40.4 51.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 43.5 46.8 54.7 126.4 74.6 68.8 24.4 32.1 40.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 18 82 100 65.1 78.7 96.3 145.6 83.9 78.5 32.4 43.7 56.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 53.8 60.5 58.9 132.6 77.4 71.4 25.6 36.1 48.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 38.7 41.6 54.1 126.3 74.0 68.0 22.3 29.2 36.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 39.8 43.6 57.6 127.5 75.4 69.7 22.3 29.5 37.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 62.5 69.7 66.3 131.4 78.4 71.9 34.3 45.1 57.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 55.5 62.4 63.4 128.3 75.7 69.6 25.4 37.2 51.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 23 77 100 48.3 55.1 65.8 141.8 81.8 75.5 28.8 36.1 44.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 44.9 49.0 60.0 124.5 73.8 68.0 21.5 30.9 41.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 18 82 100 58.7 67.1 64.5 143.8 80.3 75.6 25.2 36.4 49.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 88.3 99.0 81.6 134.7 80.0 74.1 51.1 65.3 80.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 43.5 46.9 54.2 125.8 74.4 68.7 22.3 30.7 40.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------