***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.02.2013.-17.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 9999.0 12.4 18.1 165.3 81.1 74.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 9.1 11.6 15.7 152.1 78.3 72.0 2.3 4.5 7.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 15.6 21.3 17.9 159.9 80.1 72.3 3.0 6.8 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 13 87 100 19.8 28.9 22.9 195.0 86.4 81.1 4.9 9.0 14.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 17.6 23.6 19.7 163.7 81.4 74.4 4.5 8.6 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 13.7 14.7 15.2 131.5 73.0 67.4 4.6 7.8 12.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 7.6 9.9 15.5 152.6 78.4 72.6 1.6 3.4 6.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 26 74 100 25.6 35.0 23.0 181.8 84.5 77.3 9.9 15.2 22.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 15.0 20.1 19.1 161.4 81.2 72.9 3.6 7.0 12.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 17.7 24.2 20.7 161.9 81.4 72.9 5.3 9.5 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 14.1 20.5 18.7 164.8 81.8 74.2 3.0 6.4 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 19.2 27.6 20.0 176.7 83.9 77.1 5.0 9.3 15.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 18.3 22.2 17.8 149.6 78.1 72.2 5.4 9.7 15.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 16.9 22.4 20.6 154.3 79.0 71.8 5.3 9.5 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 8 92 100 16.5 26.9 26.0 233.9 89.4 85.6 3.6 7.0 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 14.3 20.0 18.5 163.3 81.2 74.9 3.5 6.9 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 8.0 9.9 14.7 151.7 78.1 72.5 2.0 4.0 6.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 17.1 24.2 23.3 164.5 81.8 73.1 4.9 9.0 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 11.4 14.8 16.5 153.0 78.5 71.5 2.9 5.7 9.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 19 81 100 19.3 30.7 33.6 210.1 87.9 81.6 5.3 9.5 15.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 22 78 100 16.8 21.9 18.7 163.7 81.3 73.7 3.6 7.4 12.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 8.9 11.3 15.9 156.7 79.2 73.4 2.9 5.0 7.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 10.8 14.2 17.8 153.4 78.7 70.7 3.3 6.0 9.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 16.1 21.9 20.5 157.2 79.9 71.2 4.7 8.7 14.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 20 80 100 19.6 24.5 20.0 158.1 80.0 73.7 3.5 7.7 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 14 86 100 15.0 19.8 20.7 175.4 83.3 77.9 3.5 6.6 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 14.1 17.8 18.5 153.9 78.9 72.4 2.4 5.5 10.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 14 86 100 17.5 27.4 22.5 205.5 86.8 82.0 3.3 7.1 12.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 28.0 39.4 26.6 175.3 83.6 75.8 9.5 15.8 24.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 10.6 13.7 16.4 154.3 78.8 72.3 2.9 5.5 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------