***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.02.2013.-24.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 5.0 13.2 92.1 58.1 52.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 5.1 6.0 13.7 99.0 61.9 56.7 2.0 4.0 6.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 8.3 9.1 13.9 97.5 60.6 54.6 3.6 6.6 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 8.3 9.7 15.4 101.3 62.3 56.7 4.1 7.1 10.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 8.7 10.0 15.1 103.0 62.6 56.3 3.8 6.9 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 7.2 8.5 16.6 106.3 63.7 56.5 3.2 5.7 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 5.6 6.3 13.4 97.1 60.6 55.1 2.3 4.4 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 14.6 18.4 17.4 111.5 66.2 59.3 7.3 12.1 18.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 7.5 8.2 14.8 100.0 61.0 54.4 2.9 5.7 9.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 8.4 9.8 16.2 104.4 63.0 56.3 3.3 6.5 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 7.5 9.3 14.8 107.6 64.7 57.4 3.1 5.8 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 8.6 11.2 15.4 111.4 66.3 58.8 3.8 6.9 11.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 9.2 11.9 16.3 111.4 66.1 59.1 4.4 7.6 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 9.3 10.6 16.9 98.9 61.7 55.9 3.9 7.4 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 6.6 8.2 15.3 99.9 62.5 56.6 2.2 5.1 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 7.3 9.1 15.3 108.3 64.9 57.7 3.4 5.9 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 5.9 7.5 13.3 100.9 63.0 57.3 2.1 4.6 8.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 9.2 10.3 17.7 100.4 61.0 55.3 3.8 7.2 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 5.6 6.6 13.9 98.9 62.0 56.7 2.5 4.6 7.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 11.5 15.5 23.3 110.0 65.3 60.4 5.1 9.5 15.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 7.3 7.7 13.7 95.8 59.6 53.1 2.7 5.5 9.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 5.8 7.5 14.1 101.1 63.3 57.5 2.2 4.7 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 5.4 6.0 14.4 97.4 61.4 55.8 2.6 4.4 6.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 10.9 11.7 15.9 98.6 60.7 54.6 5.3 8.9 13.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 6.6 6.8 14.9 94.7 58.9 53.3 2.3 5.0 8.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 8.1 10.7 16.6 117.5 68.4 59.9 3.9 6.5 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 6.1 6.2 14.4 92.8 58.1 52.5 3.0 5.0 7.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 7.4 9.5 15.3 103.7 63.6 57.1 2.5 5.6 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 15.8 18.5 19.4 101.2 61.7 56.7 7.3 13.1 21.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 5.6 6.3 13.6 96.7 60.6 55.4 2.3 4.4 7.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------