***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.02.2013.-03.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 44 56 100 9999.0 15.1 13.8 139.6 75.3 66.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 8.8 14.4 13.1 132.1 73.3 64.7 4.2 7.4 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 14.0 17.9 14.3 150.2 77.9 69.3 4.3 7.7 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 16.4 21.9 16.6 161.7 80.2 70.8 4.4 8.4 14.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 15.0 19.6 16.7 163.2 80.7 70.3 5.2 8.7 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 13.8 15.6 17.6 144.4 76.5 68.8 3.7 6.9 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 8.2 13.1 12.9 127.5 71.9 62.8 3.7 6.9 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 20.1 26.1 18.7 164.4 80.7 70.8 7.3 11.9 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 13.0 16.8 16.7 163.6 80.9 70.0 4.5 7.5 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 14.6 19.2 18.3 163.9 81.0 70.4 5.1 8.6 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 11.1 14.5 16.2 164.6 80.8 70.2 3.9 6.5 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 14.5 18.7 16.7 162.8 80.2 70.8 4.7 8.1 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 13.2 15.5 17.2 149.9 77.7 70.0 4.8 7.7 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 17.7 23.1 17.3 154.6 79.2 70.9 4.7 9.0 15.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 18.7 24.7 15.7 162.3 80.0 70.3 3.8 8.1 14.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 13.9 17.3 16.3 156.6 79.1 70.2 4.0 7.2 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 8.7 13.5 12.7 128.0 72.1 61.8 4.4 7.4 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 12.2 15.6 19.9 161.3 80.7 70.6 4.7 7.5 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 12.8 15.1 13.4 137.3 74.7 66.5 4.1 7.3 11.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 13.6 17.5 23.8 159.0 79.9 69.8 4.7 7.9 12.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 14.0 18.5 15.5 157.8 79.6 69.3 4.5 7.9 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 9.6 14.9 13.3 133.1 73.6 63.0 4.7 8.0 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 10.7 12.6 14.1 144.6 76.6 68.7 3.3 5.9 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 13.1 16.9 17.3 159.2 80.2 70.9 5.1 8.1 11.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 14.8 19.3 16.2 148.4 77.3 69.0 3.3 7.0 12.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 14.4 18.0 17.6 156.6 79.0 71.5 3.9 7.3 11.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 44 56 100 11.7 14.3 15.0 137.8 74.8 66.6 3.2 6.2 10.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 14.0 18.2 16.2 162.7 80.2 70.6 3.7 7.1 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 18.0 22.9 21.2 158.6 80.1 70.2 6.6 10.7 15.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 45 55 100 13.2 15.8 13.3 135.6 74.2 66.0 4.0 7.4 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------