***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.03.2013.-10.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 9999.0 11.1 11.0 125.9 71.7 61.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 8.7 9.1 10.9 125.0 71.6 59.6 2.3 4.5 7.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 12.7 13.8 11.0 128.3 72.3 61.9 3.3 6.5 11.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 9.8 13.4 11.1 117.7 69.3 60.5 4.7 8.0 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 7.8 11.6 11.1 118.0 69.1 61.0 2.7 5.7 10.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 9.8 9.4 12.6 117.4 68.8 61.0 2.5 4.9 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 7.3 7.6 11.1 124.4 71.4 59.4 2.0 3.8 6.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 14.4 19.3 11.8 112.7 67.5 59.2 6.3 11.5 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 42 58 100 9.4 9.5 11.4 120.1 69.8 61.8 2.5 5.0 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 42 58 100 11.2 10.9 12.1 116.0 68.5 60.8 2.8 5.7 10.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 10.5 9.9 10.4 112.4 67.4 59.7 2.7 5.4 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 6.5 8.5 10.1 109.9 66.7 58.6 2.6 5.1 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 12.1 11.6 11.3 112.9 67.6 60.3 3.4 6.5 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 12.7 18.6 13.0 119.3 69.6 61.1 4.9 9.7 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 10.5 9.9 10.4 118.0 70.0 59.8 2.3 4.8 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 10.2 9.6 10.6 111.7 67.3 59.8 3.1 5.7 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 4.4 6.3 10.5 120.2 70.4 57.9 1.7 3.3 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 11.8 11.4 13.6 115.4 68.2 60.5 3.5 6.5 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 10.2 10.6 10.9 125.7 71.7 60.2 2.8 5.4 8.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 10.9 9.8 15.7 112.3 67.4 58.7 2.3 5.2 9.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 42 58 100 10.5 11.0 11.0 123.8 70.9 61.6 2.8 5.5 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 7.2 7.4 10.9 123.5 71.4 58.8 2.1 3.9 6.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 10.3 11.0 11.2 125.2 71.5 61.2 2.5 5.2 9.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 42 58 100 15.3 15.6 12.6 121.2 70.0 61.5 3.9 7.9 13.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 10.2 10.3 12.2 121.3 70.3 61.1 2.7 5.3 9.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 5.7 8.5 10.8 117.8 69.0 60.0 2.0 4.3 7.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 9.7 10.0 12.2 123.8 71.1 61.5 2.3 4.8 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 11.3 10.5 10.4 114.4 68.7 60.0 2.6 5.4 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 12.6 16.4 14.4 112.4 67.2 59.2 5.3 9.8 15.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 9.5 9.9 11.0 127.1 72.0 60.6 2.7 5.0 8.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------