***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.02.2019.-03.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 10.4 9.9 7.9 0.4 53.7 52.7 6.9 9.4 11.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 5.6 8.9 7.9 0.4 54.1 53.0 6.0 8.4 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 6.6 10.1 8.3 0.5 54.3 52.8 7.1 9.5 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 4.1 3.4 5.4 0.3 52.6 51.5 0.5 3.0 5.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 6.7 10.2 6.5 0.3 53.0 52.0 7.3 9.8 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 6.4 9.0 4.8 -0.1 49.5 50.4 6.8 9.0 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 5.3 8.6 7.9 0.4 54.2 53.0 5.7 8.0 10.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -1.1 0.7 5.3 0.1 51.0 51.3 -0.9 0.6 2.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 7.2 10.6 7.1 0.3 53.2 52.1 7.9 10.2 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 7.2 10.3 6.0 0.2 51.7 51.4 7.7 10.0 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 7.4 10.7 6.5 0.3 53.2 52.6 7.8 10.2 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 7.0 9.8 6.1 0.2 52.2 52.3 7.4 9.5 11.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 7.5 10.1 5.3 0.0 49.7 51.2 7.9 10.1 12.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 6.7 10.6 7.3 0.4 53.2 51.8 7.5 10.1 12.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 9.7 9.3 6.3 0.5 54.7 52.9 5.9 8.6 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 7.8 10.7 5.9 0.1 51.1 51.5 8.3 10.6 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 5.0 8.1 7.8 0.4 53.6 52.4 5.4 7.7 9.8 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 6.9 10.1 5.9 0.2 52.0 51.7 7.6 9.9 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 9.6 9.2 8.1 0.5 54.4 53.1 6.1 8.5 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 3.2 5.3 3.3 -0.1 49.0 50.5 3.7 5.4 7.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 7.1 10.3 7.7 0.4 53.3 52.1 7.5 9.9 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 9.5 9.0 8.0 0.4 53.9 52.6 6.1 8.5 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 10.3 9.9 8.4 0.5 54.6 53.0 6.8 9.3 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 7.1 10.6 7.2 0.3 53.1 52.0 7.8 10.2 12.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 9.7 9.2 6.2 0.3 53.2 52.3 6.3 8.7 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 7.5 9.7 5.2 0.0 50.5 51.7 7.8 9.7 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 10.1 9.5 7.2 0.3 53.3 52.5 6.8 9.1 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 10.7 9.9 5.7 0.3 52.6 51.6 6.4 9.4 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 3.4 6.1 5.0 0.1 51.2 51.4 4.0 6.0 7.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 5.7 9.0 7.9 0.5 54.3 53.1 6.1 8.4 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------