***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.03.2019.-10.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 6.2 9.1 8.5 -0.1 49.1 48.7 6.8 9.2 11.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 6.5 9.5 8.6 0.0 50.3 49.7 7.2 9.4 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 6.9 10.0 9.1 0.1 50.5 49.8 7.6 10.0 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 -0.4 2.2 6.0 -0.1 48.9 48.1 0.1 2.4 4.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 7.0 10.0 7.1 -0.1 49.5 48.5 7.7 10.1 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 6.4 9.0 5.6 -0.1 49.2 48.2 6.9 9.1 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 6.5 9.2 8.5 0.0 49.8 49.2 7.0 9.2 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 -2.9 0.2 6.3 0.2 52.4 50.4 -2.3 -0.1 1.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 7.0 10.1 7.8 0.0 50.3 49.1 7.7 10.1 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 7.2 10.4 6.9 0.1 51.3 49.6 7.9 10.2 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 7.1 10.4 7.2 0.1 50.9 49.5 7.9 10.2 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 6.6 9.9 7.0 0.2 52.3 50.5 7.4 9.6 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 7.6 10.6 6.3 0.1 50.9 49.4 8.2 10.5 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 7.3 10.7 8.2 0.2 52.1 50.6 8.0 10.4 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 6.4 9.3 6.6 -0.1 49.1 48.5 7.0 9.4 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 7.6 10.7 6.7 0.0 50.0 48.9 8.4 10.7 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 6.1 9.1 8.5 0.1 50.9 49.7 6.9 9.0 11.0 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 6.9 10.1 6.9 0.3 52.7 50.7 7.5 9.8 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 6.3 9.5 8.9 0.1 50.9 50.2 7.0 9.4 11.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 2.5 5.8 4.6 0.4 54.4 51.9 3.1 5.3 7.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 7.0 10.0 8.4 0.0 49.6 48.7 7.8 10.1 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 6.3 9.8 8.7 0.2 51.7 50.4 7.3 9.6 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 6.9 10.3 9.2 0.2 51.6 50.6 7.8 10.1 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 7.2 10.6 8.0 0.2 51.6 50.2 7.9 10.3 12.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 6.6 9.3 6.9 -0.1 49.1 48.2 7.2 9.4 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 7.2 10.5 6.2 0.3 52.8 50.7 7.9 10.1 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 6.8 9.5 7.8 -0.1 48.7 48.2 7.4 9.7 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 6.6 9.6 6.2 -0.2 48.6 48.0 7.3 9.8 12.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 2.3 5.6 6.2 0.4 53.6 51.4 2.9 5.1 7.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 6.5 9.3 8.6 0.0 50.0 49.6 7.1 9.3 11.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------