***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.02.2019.-10.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 8.6 8.1 7.1 0.1 51.4 51.8 6.2 8.0 9.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 8.0 7.6 7.2 0.2 52.6 52.5 5.6 7.4 9.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 8.8 8.1 7.4 0.0 50.0 50.6 6.3 8.1 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 1.9 0.9 4.0 -0.3 46.1 47.1 -0.5 1.3 2.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 8.9 7.8 5.3 -0.4 45.6 47.2 6.4 8.3 9.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 8.1 6.9 3.8 -0.4 43.9 45.9 5.9 7.5 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 7.6 7.4 7.2 0.3 53.6 53.4 5.2 7.0 8.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -0.5 -1.5 4.0 -0.6 41.3 43.8 -2.1 -0.9 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 9.1 8.1 6.2 -0.3 46.5 47.9 6.7 8.5 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 9.1 7.7 4.8 -0.6 42.5 44.7 6.7 8.5 10.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 9.2 8.1 5.5 -0.3 45.8 47.5 6.8 8.6 10.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 8.6 7.5 4.9 -0.4 44.2 46.4 6.4 8.0 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 9.2 8.0 4.8 -0.5 43.6 46.3 7.0 8.6 10.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 9.3 8.2 6.4 -0.3 46.2 47.3 6.7 8.6 10.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 8.2 7.6 5.6 0.1 51.0 50.9 5.5 7.5 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 9.6 8.5 5.0 -0.4 45.1 47.2 7.3 9.0 10.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 7.5 7.2 7.1 0.2 53.2 52.7 5.1 6.9 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 8.7 7.3 4.6 -0.6 42.4 44.7 6.3 8.1 9.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 8.1 7.6 7.3 0.2 52.0 52.0 5.5 7.4 9.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 4.6 3.2 2.4 -0.7 39.3 42.3 2.6 4.0 5.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 9.0 8.1 6.9 -0.2 47.6 48.8 6.6 8.3 10.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 8.1 7.7 7.2 0.1 51.9 51.6 5.6 7.5 9.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 8.6 8.0 7.5 0.1 51.2 51.3 6.0 7.9 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 9.1 8.0 6.2 -0.4 45.3 46.8 6.8 8.5 10.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 8.1 7.4 5.6 -0.1 49.3 50.0 5.7 7.5 9.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 8.8 7.8 4.2 -0.4 44.1 46.7 6.8 8.3 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 8.4 7.9 6.5 0.1 50.9 51.4 6.1 7.8 9.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 8.8 7.6 4.6 -0.3 46.6 47.5 5.9 8.0 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 4.6 3.3 3.9 -0.6 41.7 44.1 2.5 4.1 5.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 7.9 7.5 7.2 0.2 52.3 52.4 5.5 7.3 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------