***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.02.2019.-17.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 12.6 19.3 16.0 178.3 82.9 75.1 2.9 6.0 10.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 9.1 11.5 12.8 152.2 77.9 71.1 2.3 4.5 7.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 15.8 25.5 16.5 187.0 84.3 76.2 3.0 6.8 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 17.3 25.8 20.4 178.5 83.5 75.2 4.9 9.0 14.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 21 79 100 18.4 30.8 21.9 205.6 88.2 80.3 4.5 8.6 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 20 80 100 15.3 23.1 21.0 197.4 87.1 80.4 4.6 7.8 12.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 7.9 10.1 13.1 157.1 78.9 72.1 1.6 3.4 6.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 25.8 37.3 23.4 193.5 86.6 78.6 9.9 15.2 22.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 15.3 25.7 19.5 199.9 87.4 78.6 3.6 7.0 12.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 18.9 31.4 23.5 204.8 88.5 80.2 5.3 9.5 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 14.5 26.6 21.9 202.0 87.8 79.0 3.0 6.4 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 18.9 30.4 20.9 193.9 86.3 78.5 5.0 9.3 15.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 17 83 100 20.0 32.6 24.6 212.3 88.9 82.6 5.4 9.7 15.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 18.5 27.3 21.1 188.2 84.9 77.4 5.3 9.5 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 46 54 100 12.6 18.3 16.5 160.4 79.5 68.2 3.6 7.0 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 22 78 100 15.4 26.5 22.6 208.5 88.1 81.0 3.5 6.9 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 8.2 9.1 12.2 140.4 75.5 70.1 2.0 4.0 6.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 20 80 100 18.8 30.4 24.0 202.0 87.8 81.0 4.9 9.0 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 11.2 15.0 13.4 157.5 78.9 71.8 2.9 5.7 9.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 21 79 100 19.0 26.7 27.7 182.2 84.3 78.7 5.3 9.5 15.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 16.1 25.7 18.1 190.6 85.4 77.3 3.6 7.4 12.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 8.6 10.0 12.5 138.5 75.0 68.8 2.9 5.0 7.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 11.3 15.4 14.9 169.5 81.2 73.7 3.3 6.0 9.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 17.8 28.5 20.7 200.0 87.0 78.8 4.7 8.7 14.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 19.0 30.5 21.0 190.4 85.2 78.2 3.5 7.7 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 18 82 100 14.6 22.3 21.7 194.3 86.3 80.0 3.5 6.6 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 13.8 21.9 17.7 182.1 83.6 76.3 2.4 5.5 10.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 15.0 23.4 18.8 178.5 83.0 73.4 3.3 7.1 12.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 20 80 100 29.7 43.7 25.3 194.8 86.6 80.4 9.5 15.8 24.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 10.4 14.3 13.7 162.2 79.9 72.6 2.9 5.5 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------