***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.02.2019.-24.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 3.1 6.8 11.7 93.2 60.1 47.2 3.0 5.2 8.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 5.5 5.8 9.9 91.7 60.9 49.5 2.0 4.0 6.8 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 3.9 9.2 11.9 95.5 61.0 48.3 3.6 6.6 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 8.9 9.1 13.8 92.9 59.7 49.7 4.1 7.1 10.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 3.9 8.3 12.1 85.8 56.2 45.9 3.8 6.9 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 7.3 6.2 10.9 80.8 52.7 46.5 3.2 5.7 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 2.5 6.1 9.4 89.9 59.7 47.0 2.3 4.4 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 6.9 13.1 12.1 81.0 53.0 43.2 7.3 12.1 18.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 3.3 7.9 13.0 93.1 59.3 48.6 2.9 5.7 9.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 3.4 7.5 12.1 83.7 54.5 43.7 3.3 6.5 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 3.2 6.6 11.6 81.8 53.7 44.1 3.1 5.8 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 4.0 7.5 11.3 80.5 53.0 44.1 3.8 6.9 11.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 4.4 8.0 11.1 78.0 51.9 44.4 4.4 7.6 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 4.2 10.7 14.7 99.4 62.0 50.1 3.9 7.4 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 7.1 8.5 13.9 98.5 63.4 53.0 2.2 5.1 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 3.4 6.5 11.2 80.2 52.8 44.5 3.4 5.9 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 2.5 7.0 9.5 93.0 61.1 48.5 2.1 4.6 8.4 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 4.0 8.6 13.2 87.5 55.6 44.8 3.8 7.2 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 6.0 6.3 10.5 92.3 60.8 49.9 2.5 4.6 7.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 5.0 10.0 15.1 78.7 51.6 42.2 5.1 9.5 15.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 7.7 8.5 13.3 99.7 62.2 49.7 2.7 5.5 9.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 2.4 6.9 10.2 92.4 60.9 49.2 2.2 4.7 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 5.6 5.9 11.7 93.7 60.5 50.0 2.6 4.4 6.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 5.2 11.8 13.8 98.0 60.9 49.0 5.3 8.9 13.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 7.1 6.7 12.9 90.5 58.5 46.2 2.3 5.0 8.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 4.1 7.1 11.7 80.7 53.1 44.7 3.9 6.5 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 3.1 6.2 11.5 88.5 57.8 45.5 3.0 5.0 7.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 8.1 8.2 12.9 91.6 59.7 50.1 2.5 5.6 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 7.7 15.1 14.1 86.2 54.7 44.1 7.3 13.1 21.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 2.6 6.3 10.3 91.9 60.5 48.8 2.3 4.4 7.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------