***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.02.2019.-03.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 8.4 9.2 13.3 101.8 62.3 51.1 2.9 6.0 10.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 4.5 11.2 12.0 106.4 64.6 51.4 4.2 7.4 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 10.2 11.0 13.1 99.4 61.8 50.3 4.3 7.7 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 11.2 11.1 13.8 92.3 58.8 49.7 4.4 8.4 14.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 10.7 10.4 13.3 89.0 57.0 49.4 5.2 8.7 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 9.2 9.8 13.8 98.4 61.5 51.6 3.7 6.9 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 9.0 10.1 11.3 102.1 62.9 50.6 3.7 6.9 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 14.6 14.5 14.6 90.9 58.0 50.4 7.3 11.9 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 9.2 9.1 14.2 91.1 57.7 50.0 4.5 7.5 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 10.6 10.4 14.9 91.0 57.7 50.4 5.1 8.6 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 8.0 7.7 12.8 88.8 57.0 49.1 3.9 6.5 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 10.0 10.1 12.9 90.8 58.1 49.9 4.7 8.1 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 9.4 9.6 13.3 92.5 58.7 49.6 4.8 7.7 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.1 13.0 16.6 98.6 61.4 50.4 4.7 9.0 15.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 4.5 12.6 13.8 96.0 61.6 48.8 3.8 8.1 14.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 9.4 9.1 12.7 90.5 57.8 48.9 4.0 7.2 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 4.5 10.7 11.1 103.4 63.5 51.6 4.4 7.4 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 9.0 9.4 16.5 95.5 59.9 51.5 4.7 7.5 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 4.4 11.2 12.4 106.0 64.4 51.1 4.1 7.3 11.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 9.6 10.1 19.6 93.7 59.2 50.5 4.7 7.9 12.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 10.1 10.1 13.5 93.2 58.8 50.0 4.5 7.9 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 4.9 12.2 12.1 109.5 65.9 53.0 4.7 8.0 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 7.7 8.4 13.0 101.3 62.4 50.2 3.3 5.9 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 9.8 10.6 15.5 97.9 61.1 51.0 5.1 8.1 11.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 9.9 10.7 14.6 99.4 61.3 51.9 3.3 7.0 12.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 9.6 10.3 13.5 96.4 60.9 51.5 3.9 7.3 11.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 8.6 9.8 14.1 104.5 63.3 52.0 3.2 6.2 10.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 9.4 9.5 13.2 92.5 59.4 48.7 3.7 7.1 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 12.9 14.0 17.9 97.5 60.7 51.4 6.6 10.7 15.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 9.9 11.8 12.5 107.2 64.8 51.2 4.0 7.4 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------