***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.03.2019.-10.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 2.9 5.6 10.5 75.1 51.3 41.4 2.7 5.3 9.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 2.5 4.6 8.8 72.6 50.5 42.5 2.3 4.5 7.6 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 3.6 6.9 10.8 77.7 51.8 41.5 3.3 6.5 11.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 10.2 9.8 13.3 87.7 57.3 47.0 4.7 8.0 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 3.2 7.0 12.9 84.6 55.3 45.8 2.7 5.7 10.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 2.9 6.4 12.6 90.9 57.5 49.6 2.5 4.9 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 5.2 4.0 8.8 74.8 51.6 43.2 2.0 3.8 6.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 6.7 12.9 13.2 84.1 53.6 45.6 6.3 11.5 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 6.9 5.8 13.5 84.3 54.8 45.6 2.5 5.0 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 3.2 6.6 14.0 85.1 54.1 46.0 2.8 5.7 10.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 3.0 6.7 12.4 87.3 55.8 46.9 2.7 5.4 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 2.9 5.9 11.7 85.8 55.0 46.5 2.6 5.1 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 3.6 8.0 12.5 88.9 56.2 47.8 3.4 6.5 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 13.5 10.2 13.5 78.9 51.7 42.9 4.9 9.7 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 6.8 7.2 13.5 93.0 61.1 49.1 2.3 4.8 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.3 7.2 12.4 90.4 57.3 48.7 3.1 5.7 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 1.8 3.5 8.4 73.6 51.6 42.8 1.7 3.3 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 3.9 7.2 14.6 83.3 53.2 45.1 3.5 6.5 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 2.9 5.4 9.1 72.4 49.9 41.7 2.8 5.4 8.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 2.8 5.2 16.2 76.5 50.1 42.7 2.3 5.2 9.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 3.2 6.3 12.3 81.9 54.1 43.8 2.8 5.5 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 2.2 4.1 8.9 74.4 51.6 42.7 2.1 3.9 6.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 2.9 5.2 10.0 74.0 50.0 40.8 2.5 5.2 9.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 10.9 9.1 13.5 83.0 53.8 44.2 3.9 7.9 13.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 7.2 6.0 12.5 80.2 53.6 44.0 2.7 5.3 9.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 2.2 5.1 11.9 85.3 55.0 46.5 2.0 4.3 7.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 6.7 5.1 11.1 76.8 51.9 43.0 2.3 4.8 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 7.6 7.6 13.0 92.0 59.5 48.8 2.6 5.4 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 5.6 10.3 14.9 80.0 51.7 44.2 5.3 9.8 15.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 2.8 5.1 9.2 72.8 50.2 42.0 2.7 5.0 8.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------