***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.02.2019.-10.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 36.7 38.8 51.5 106.0 61.1 53.9 23.1 32.0 42.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 31.9 32.5 43.5 102.1 58.6 53.4 20.3 28.0 36.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 45.0 48.6 52.3 108.1 62.7 55.7 27.5 38.6 51.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 48.8 52.6 61.3 108.7 63.2 56.5 32.4 43.0 54.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 47.2 51.4 60.1 109.6 64.0 58.3 31.3 41.7 53.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 37.9 44.0 58.3 112.0 65.8 60.5 25.0 33.8 44.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 29.5 30.0 42.6 102.3 58.7 53.2 18.2 25.7 34.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 71.6 75.4 63.2 107.7 62.6 57.5 53.7 65.8 78.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 39.3 43.0 60.2 108.8 63.3 57.9 26.2 35.1 44.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 46.4 51.0 64.5 109.7 64.2 59.2 33.5 42.4 52.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 39.0 42.7 58.6 109.3 63.8 59.1 25.1 34.1 44.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 45.2 47.9 56.8 107.8 62.6 57.4 30.3 39.8 50.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 46.5 53.5 61.5 113.4 67.0 61.5 32.4 42.0 52.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 56.1 62.1 65.8 109.9 64.1 57.1 39.1 50.9 64.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 21.9 46.0 57.8 108.3 62.9 55.3 21.1 33.5 49.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 39.8 45.2 58.7 112.1 66.0 60.6 27.4 35.9 45.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 30.0 30.4 41.3 100.3 57.7 53.3 19.6 26.8 34.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 44.7 50.7 68.3 110.5 64.8 58.9 30.4 40.4 51.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 36.2 36.8 45.4 102.7 58.9 53.4 24.4 32.1 40.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 49.5 50.5 78.6 103.5 59.1 53.8 32.4 43.7 56.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 41.9 46.4 57.2 109.3 63.7 56.9 25.6 36.1 48.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 32.2 33.0 43.7 101.5 58.4 54.0 22.3 29.2 36.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 32.9 34.2 49.6 104.1 59.8 53.7 22.3 29.5 37.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 50.0 57.2 63.5 112.3 66.0 58.7 34.3 45.1 57.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 43.8 49.3 60.9 109.8 64.1 56.6 25.4 37.2 51.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 39.4 43.0 58.8 109.7 64.0 58.5 28.8 36.1 44.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 36.1 38.9 54.5 107.3 62.1 54.8 21.5 30.9 41.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 42.9 47.4 58.0 109.3 63.7 57.3 25.2 36.4 49.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 72.1 77.8 72.2 109.0 63.4 57.0 51.1 65.3 80.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 35.2 36.3 45.7 103.9 59.7 53.7 22.3 30.7 40.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------