***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.02.2018.-18.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 91 9 100 6.1 7.3 7.4 1.6 62.8 62.3 3.7 5.8 7.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 92 8 100 5.3 6.3 7.3 1.3 60.9 60.4 2.8 4.9 7.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 90 10 100 6.0 7.4 7.9 1.7 63.6 62.8 3.3 5.6 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 92 8 100 -0.7 -0.1 3.9 0.9 57.5 57.0 -3.1 -1.0 1.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 89 11 100 5.9 7.3 6.3 1.7 64.5 63.6 3.3 5.5 7.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 5.4 6.6 4.7 1.7 64.3 63.4 2.9 4.9 6.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 90 10 100 4.9 6.0 7.2 1.4 61.5 61.1 2.3 4.5 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 90 10 100 -2.3 -1.6 4.7 1.1 59.7 59.0 -4.4 -2.6 -1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 88 12 100 6.2 7.5 7.3 1.7 63.8 62.9 3.4 5.7 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 88 12 100 6.1 7.1 5.8 1.5 62.0 61.1 3.5 5.6 7.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 88 12 100 6.3 7.7 6.9 1.8 64.8 63.7 3.6 5.8 7.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 88 12 100 5.7 6.8 5.6 1.4 61.8 61.1 3.2 5.3 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 44 56 100 8.0 7.9 6.7 1.9 65.9 64.9 3.8 5.9 7.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 88 12 100 6.3 7.2 7.1 1.3 60.6 59.8 3.6 5.9 8.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 90 10 100 5.5 6.2 6.1 1.0 58.8 58.4 2.9 5.1 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 43 57 100 8.4 8.4 6.4 2.0 66.6 65.5 4.1 6.2 8.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 91 9 100 4.9 5.8 6.8 1.2 60.2 59.8 2.5 4.6 6.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 87 13 100 5.7 6.8 5.4 1.6 62.8 62.0 3.1 5.2 7.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 91 9 100 5.3 6.5 7.5 1.4 61.4 60.9 2.7 5.0 7.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 88 12 100 2.3 3.3 3.7 1.5 62.9 62.2 0.0 1.9 3.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 89 11 100 6.0 7.5 8.0 1.7 64.3 63.5 3.3 5.6 7.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 92 8 100 5.3 6.2 7.1 1.1 59.4 58.9 2.9 5.0 7.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 89 11 100 5.6 6.8 7.7 1.5 62.4 61.7 2.8 5.1 7.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 87 13 100 6.3 7.4 7.2 1.6 62.8 61.9 3.4 5.7 7.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 90 10 100 5.3 6.6 6.5 1.6 63.7 63.1 2.8 4.9 6.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 89 11 100 6.1 7.2 4.8 1.4 62.7 62.1 3.6 5.7 7.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 91 9 100 5.7 7.0 6.9 1.6 63.1 62.6 3.1 5.3 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 90 10 100 6.0 6.7 5.1 1.0 58.4 57.8 3.3 5.6 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 88 12 100 2.0 3.3 5.0 1.6 63.5 62.6 -0.7 1.5 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 92 8 100 5.1 6.3 7.4 1.4 61.7 61.2 2.5 4.8 6.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------