***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.02.2018.-25.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 44 56 100 9.9 9.8 9.2 1.7 66.1 63.8 5.6 7.8 9.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 9.2 9.3 9.5 2.0 68.3 65.8 4.5 6.8 9.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 45 55 100 9.8 9.7 9.6 1.7 65.7 63.4 5.2 7.6 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 1.5 1.3 5.2 0.4 53.8 53.3 -1.5 0.8 2.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 8.4 9.1 7.4 1.1 60.4 58.7 5.3 7.7 9.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 7.7 8.2 5.7 1.0 59.9 58.1 4.5 6.8 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 8.9 9.1 9.4 2.1 69.6 66.9 4.1 6.4 8.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 -0.9 -0.5 6.1 0.9 58.9 57.5 -3.6 -1.5 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 8.7 9.7 8.5 1.3 62.2 60.2 5.7 8.0 10.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 8.8 9.4 7.1 1.1 60.4 58.6 5.8 8.1 10.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 8.8 9.5 7.7 1.1 60.5 58.7 5.7 8.1 10.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 8.3 8.8 6.9 0.9 59.4 58.0 5.3 7.6 9.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 8.8 9.6 7.3 1.3 62.3 60.4 5.7 8.0 10.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 9.0 10.1 8.8 1.4 63.0 60.4 5.8 8.2 10.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 7.5 7.6 6.8 0.7 56.2 55.5 4.7 6.9 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 9.1 9.8 7.2 1.2 61.2 59.3 6.0 8.3 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 8.6 8.8 9.2 2.0 69.0 66.3 4.1 6.3 8.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 8.3 9.1 6.9 1.3 61.6 59.4 5.3 7.6 9.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 9.3 9.4 9.6 2.0 67.9 65.4 4.4 6.8 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 4.5 5.3 4.9 1.3 62.7 60.5 1.5 3.7 5.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 8.6 9.6 9.2 1.4 63.2 61.1 5.6 7.9 10.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 43 57 100 9.2 9.4 9.3 1.9 68.0 65.3 4.4 6.8 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 7.9 9.7 9.8 1.9 67.6 64.9 4.8 7.2 9.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 8.7 9.7 8.7 1.4 62.8 60.5 5.7 8.0 10.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 7.5 8.6 7.6 1.4 63.4 61.3 4.6 6.8 8.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 10.0 9.3 6.2 1.2 62.6 61.0 5.4 7.7 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 9.5 9.5 8.7 1.8 67.0 64.4 4.9 7.2 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 8.2 8.0 5.9 0.4 53.7 53.1 5.1 7.5 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 4.6 5.5 6.4 1.4 62.9 60.4 1.5 3.8 5.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 9.0 9.1 9.5 2.0 68.1 65.6 4.3 6.6 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------