***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.02.2018.-04.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 10.6 9.8 8.6 0.2 52.0 52.7 7.1 9.6 11.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 5.9 8.9 8.5 0.2 51.9 52.6 6.3 8.6 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 10.9 10.0 8.9 0.1 51.4 52.4 7.4 9.8 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 0.1 3.6 6.2 0.3 52.9 53.4 0.7 3.2 5.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 7.2 10.4 7.2 0.2 52.1 52.9 7.7 10.1 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 10.3 10.0 5.7 0.5 54.5 54.6 7.2 9.5 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 9.3 8.6 8.4 0.2 51.7 52.3 6.1 8.3 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 1.3 0.9 6.0 0.3 52.6 53.1 -0.9 0.7 2.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 7.7 10.6 7.7 0.1 51.0 52.1 8.2 10.5 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 11.4 10.6 6.8 0.2 51.7 52.5 8.0 10.4 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 11.6 11.0 7.1 0.3 53.0 53.6 8.1 10.5 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 10.6 10.2 6.9 0.4 53.8 54.2 7.7 9.8 11.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 11.3 11.2 6.4 0.6 56.0 56.1 8.3 10.5 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 7.3 10.4 7.7 0.0 50.4 51.5 7.8 10.3 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 10.0 9.2 6.8 0.3 52.4 53.2 6.1 8.8 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 11.9 11.5 6.8 0.5 54.5 54.9 8.7 11.0 13.1 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 5.2 7.9 8.3 0.0 50.3 51.3 5.7 7.9 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 11.0 10.3 6.6 0.1 51.2 52.2 7.8 10.1 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 6.0 9.1 8.7 0.2 52.0 52.7 6.4 8.8 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 6.3 5.8 4.2 0.2 52.0 52.4 3.9 5.6 7.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 7.4 10.3 8.3 0.1 51.0 52.1 7.8 10.2 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 5.9 8.7 8.3 0.0 49.9 51.1 6.3 8.7 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 6.7 9.8 8.9 0.2 51.8 52.6 7.2 9.6 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 11.6 10.6 7.8 0.1 50.6 51.8 8.2 10.5 12.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 6.3 9.4 7.0 0.3 52.6 53.0 6.6 9.0 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 10.8 10.8 6.2 0.7 57.3 57.0 8.1 10.1 11.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 10.4 9.7 7.9 0.3 52.4 52.9 7.1 9.4 11.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 6.1 10.1 6.4 0.3 52.6 53.3 6.7 9.7 12.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 6.9 6.3 5.8 0.2 51.5 52.3 4.2 6.1 8.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 9.7 9.0 8.5 0.2 52.2 52.8 6.4 8.7 10.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------