***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.03.2018.-11.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 6.3 9.0 9.0 -0.2 48.4 49.7 6.9 9.3 11.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 7.0 9.4 8.9 -0.2 48.0 49.9 7.4 9.6 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 7.3 9.9 9.4 -0.1 48.9 49.9 7.8 10.1 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 -0.6 2.0 6.5 -0.3 47.4 48.8 0.1 2.3 4.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 7.2 10.1 7.6 -0.1 48.9 49.8 7.9 10.2 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 6.3 9.5 6.4 0.4 53.4 52.9 6.9 9.1 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 6.8 9.1 8.9 -0.2 47.9 49.8 7.1 9.3 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 -2.8 0.1 6.7 0.2 51.7 52.0 -2.2 -0.1 1.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 7.1 10.1 8.2 -0.1 49.4 50.0 7.8 10.2 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 7.3 10.4 7.3 0.1 50.7 51.0 8.0 10.3 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 7.2 10.3 7.6 0.0 49.8 50.5 7.9 10.3 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 6.9 9.9 7.5 0.2 51.8 52.3 7.4 9.7 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 7.9 11.0 7.0 0.3 53.4 53.6 8.3 10.5 12.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 7.5 10.6 8.4 0.0 50.2 50.5 8.1 10.5 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 6.5 9.0 7.0 -0.5 45.5 47.7 7.2 9.6 11.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 7.8 10.9 7.3 0.1 51.1 51.5 8.5 10.7 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 6.7 8.9 8.8 -0.3 47.3 49.4 7.1 9.2 11.3 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 6.9 10.1 7.3 0.2 52.2 52.2 7.5 9.8 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 6.7 9.4 9.2 -0.1 48.8 50.3 7.3 9.6 11.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 2.6 5.6 4.9 0.4 53.6 53.7 3.1 5.2 7.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 7.2 10.1 8.8 -0.1 48.9 49.7 7.9 10.2 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 7.1 9.5 8.9 -0.3 47.3 49.2 7.5 9.8 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 7.2 10.3 9.5 0.0 50.1 50.7 7.9 10.3 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 7.4 10.5 8.4 0.1 50.4 50.8 8.0 10.4 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 6.7 9.3 7.4 -0.2 48.0 49.2 7.4 9.6 11.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 7.4 10.8 7.0 0.5 55.7 55.6 7.9 10.1 12.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 7.0 9.6 8.4 -0.1 48.5 49.8 7.5 9.8 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 6.6 9.5 6.8 -0.3 47.5 48.9 7.4 9.9 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 2.4 5.5 6.5 0.3 53.0 53.0 2.8 5.1 7.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 6.9 9.3 9.0 -0.2 48.3 50.0 7.3 9.5 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------