***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.02.2018.-11.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 8.6 9.2 8.5 0.8 60.5 59.2 6.3 8.1 9.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 8.0 8.6 8.5 0.8 60.3 59.1 5.7 7.5 9.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 8.8 9.4 9.0 0.9 60.8 59.3 6.5 8.3 9.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 1.9 1.8 5.4 0.3 54.2 53.7 -0.4 1.3 3.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 9.0 9.3 7.1 0.7 59.4 58.0 6.6 8.4 10.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 8.1 8.7 5.6 0.9 61.8 59.9 6.0 7.6 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 7.6 8.3 8.5 0.9 61.0 59.7 5.4 7.2 8.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 -0.5 -0.3 5.9 0.6 58.3 57.1 -2.1 -0.9 0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 9.2 9.6 7.9 0.8 59.6 58.1 6.9 8.6 10.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 9.1 9.5 6.7 0.7 59.1 57.7 6.9 8.6 10.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 9.2 9.7 7.3 0.8 60.3 58.7 6.9 8.7 10.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 8.6 9.0 6.7 0.7 59.7 58.4 6.5 8.1 9.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 10.5 10.0 6.8 1.0 63.7 61.9 7.1 8.7 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 9.3 9.7 8.0 0.7 58.8 57.5 6.9 8.7 10.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 8.2 8.1 6.7 0.4 54.5 54.0 5.6 7.6 9.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 9.6 10.3 6.9 0.9 62.2 60.5 7.4 9.1 10.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 7.5 8.0 8.3 0.8 59.6 58.5 5.3 7.0 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 8.7 9.2 6.5 0.8 60.1 58.6 6.5 8.2 9.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 8.1 8.7 8.7 0.9 60.7 59.4 5.7 7.5 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 4.5 5.0 4.4 0.8 61.3 59.6 2.7 4.1 5.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 9.0 9.5 8.6 0.8 60.0 58.5 6.7 8.5 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 8.2 8.5 8.4 0.7 58.7 57.7 5.7 7.6 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 8.6 9.3 9.0 0.9 61.4 59.8 6.2 8.0 9.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 9.1 9.5 8.0 0.8 59.8 58.3 6.9 8.6 10.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 8.1 8.6 7.1 0.8 60.0 58.6 5.8 7.6 9.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 9.9 9.5 6.0 1.0 63.5 61.8 6.9 8.4 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 8.4 9.0 8.0 0.9 61.1 59.7 6.2 7.9 9.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 8.8 8.7 6.1 0.4 54.4 53.9 6.0 8.2 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 4.6 5.1 5.9 0.9 61.2 59.5 2.6 4.1 5.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 7.9 8.5 8.6 0.9 60.7 59.5 5.6 7.4 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------