***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.02.2018.-18.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 12.5 13.6 11.3 128.9 72.6 68.1 3.5 6.6 11.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 11.2 13.3 11.5 155.2 78.6 71.6 2.4 4.9 8.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 15.3 16.3 11.1 130.7 72.8 68.2 3.3 7.1 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 17.3 17.7 13.0 120.6 70.3 66.0 6.3 10.5 15.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 89 11 100 11.3 13.9 10.4 96.9 61.9 58.0 5.8 10.0 15.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 8.6 10.3 10.5 102.5 63.6 58.3 4.1 7.1 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 9.4 11.3 11.4 153.2 78.1 70.7 2.0 4.2 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 18.0 20.4 11.5 98.5 62.1 58.6 11.8 16.5 21.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 89 11 100 9.0 12.4 10.1 104.4 64.8 60.6 4.1 7.7 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 88 12 100 12.1 14.3 11.0 95.7 60.9 57.0 6.3 10.7 16.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 86 14 100 9.0 10.9 10.3 96.7 61.9 57.4 4.1 7.5 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 12.0 14.6 10.4 102.4 63.9 59.5 6.2 10.2 15.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 10.0 11.1 10.7 91.9 59.8 54.2 4.4 8.1 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 16.8 17.3 13.4 123.9 71.0 65.9 4.7 9.0 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 14.1 16.4 12.8 138.9 75.3 69.6 3.5 7.0 12.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 8.7 10.5 10.5 98.6 62.7 57.8 4.1 7.3 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 24 76 100 10.1 12.9 11.4 163.5 80.0 71.8 2.0 4.3 7.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 87 13 100 11.4 13.6 11.8 98.2 61.7 57.7 5.6 9.8 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 23 77 100 13.5 15.6 11.6 152.6 78.0 72.0 3.2 6.3 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 89 11 100 11.2 12.7 13.3 89.2 58.9 55.5 5.8 9.9 15.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 9.0 13.2 10.5 113.9 67.9 63.8 3.9 7.5 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 23 77 100 11.4 14.1 12.0 164.5 80.2 73.2 3.1 5.6 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 12.0 13.1 11.6 144.0 76.2 71.6 3.5 6.2 9.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 10.0 14.2 11.6 112.3 67.1 62.3 4.5 8.4 13.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 9.5 13.1 11.2 103.8 65.1 61.6 3.4 7.4 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 7.4 8.8 9.9 93.1 60.8 56.4 3.1 6.1 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 43 57 100 11.9 12.2 11.2 118.6 69.7 65.5 2.6 5.8 10.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 43 57 100 14.7 15.6 12.0 122.8 70.9 65.6 3.7 7.6 13.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 87 13 100 18.8 21.8 12.6 97.4 61.7 58.0 10.8 16.8 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 26 74 100 11.9 13.6 11.3 147.3 76.9 71.4 2.9 5.6 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------