***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.02.2018.-25.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 2.9 6.6 8.8 87.5 58.3 45.5 2.8 5.2 8.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 5.3 4.5 6.3 74.2 54.0 43.3 2.1 3.9 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 3.4 8.8 8.7 89.1 59.2 45.7 3.4 6.5 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 8.2 9.0 11.4 95.8 61.7 50.5 4.2 6.7 10.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 7.9 8.5 10.6 95.0 61.3 50.9 3.2 6.0 9.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 8.3 8.3 11.0 91.7 58.9 50.4 3.2 6.2 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 2.4 5.6 6.7 80.3 57.0 43.6 2.3 4.4 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 7.1 14.5 11.8 94.8 60.1 49.3 6.8 11.2 16.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 3.3 7.3 10.7 94.1 60.4 48.8 3.1 5.4 8.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 7.8 8.3 11.6 96.8 61.5 49.9 3.3 6.0 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 3.4 7.6 10.8 92.3 59.4 48.3 3.1 5.7 9.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 3.7 8.4 10.7 91.9 58.7 48.3 3.4 6.4 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 4.6 9.4 10.5 85.1 56.3 46.5 4.3 7.8 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 9.0 8.5 10.7 86.1 57.0 46.1 3.4 6.6 11.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 7.3 9.4 12.1 107.8 66.7 51.9 2.3 5.0 9.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 7.9 7.7 10.5 90.5 58.9 48.9 3.2 5.9 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 5.9 4.7 5.8 70.8 52.8 43.3 2.0 4.2 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 7.8 8.6 12.3 97.0 61.2 50.5 2.9 5.8 10.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 5.2 4.3 6.7 75.3 53.8 43.3 2.0 3.8 6.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 11.4 10.8 14.1 87.6 56.7 47.2 4.9 8.8 14.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 3.2 7.3 9.7 89.6 58.5 46.9 2.8 5.5 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 5.7 4.5 5.9 67.9 51.4 43.0 2.3 4.3 7.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 5.2 4.7 7.8 81.0 55.6 44.9 2.2 4.0 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 10.0 10.7 11.0 94.0 60.5 49.0 4.6 7.9 12.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 3.2 6.6 9.1 77.9 54.2 43.3 3.0 5.7 9.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 8.2 8.7 11.7 96.7 61.0 52.3 3.5 6.3 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 2.8 5.7 8.8 81.2 55.6 43.4 2.7 4.8 7.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 7.8 9.2 11.5 102.0 64.1 51.8 2.6 5.5 9.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 14.9 15.6 13.2 93.9 59.4 49.2 6.6 11.8 18.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 2.2 5.4 7.3 82.8 57.4 44.9 2.0 4.1 7.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------