***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.02.2018.-04.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 3.3 11.0 12.7 111.7 67.1 52.4 3.1 6.2 10.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 4.2 11.9 10.5 105.3 64.9 51.0 4.2 7.6 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 9.9 12.8 12.5 110.4 66.7 52.8 3.6 7.2 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 3.8 17.2 15.9 130.5 72.9 54.5 3.5 7.5 13.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 4.9 15.1 15.8 127.3 71.9 55.3 4.6 8.1 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 4.0 10.8 14.7 114.5 67.9 55.9 3.8 6.5 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 3.9 11.0 10.2 106.2 65.3 51.2 3.7 6.9 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 6.6 19.3 15.7 119.6 69.4 54.3 6.1 11.0 17.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 9.2 12.6 16.2 123.4 70.7 55.2 4.0 7.1 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 10.5 13.9 16.3 119.2 69.3 54.6 4.7 8.1 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 3.4 10.0 14.5 121.9 70.3 54.3 3.2 5.7 8.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 9.6 12.6 13.7 116.6 68.6 54.7 4.2 7.4 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 8.6 10.9 14.9 114.3 67.9 55.8 4.1 6.8 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 13.2 15.2 15.3 102.5 63.7 51.9 4.9 9.7 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 4.5 20.2 16.0 137.4 74.7 54.3 3.9 8.2 14.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 3.8 11.9 14.3 118.9 69.4 55.6 3.5 6.5 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 9.5 11.8 10.3 110.8 67.0 52.9 4.3 7.4 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 4.7 11.6 16.5 112.4 67.0 54.1 4.5 7.5 11.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 4.9 12.7 11.0 105.9 65.1 51.2 4.7 8.2 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 4.2 12.1 19.8 114.1 67.5 53.2 4.1 7.3 11.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 10.2 14.3 14.7 120.2 69.8 54.2 4.0 7.6 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 10.3 13.5 11.6 117.6 69.0 54.2 5.0 8.2 12.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 8.4 9.9 11.9 104.4 64.7 50.9 3.6 6.4 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 10.6 12.8 15.0 110.4 66.5 54.0 5.0 8.3 12.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 3.6 14.3 15.3 119.6 69.7 52.9 3.2 6.9 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 9.5 12.4 14.3 113.8 67.9 54.6 3.7 7.0 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 3.2 11.6 13.9 115.0 68.2 52.4 3.0 6.1 10.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 3.6 14.2 15.3 130.9 72.9 55.2 3.2 6.6 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 6.4 15.9 17.0 107.9 65.3 53.5 6.0 10.4 16.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 3.8 11.8 10.9 104.3 64.7 51.2 3.4 7.1 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------