***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.03.2018.-11.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 6.4 8.1 12.6 110.3 66.6 53.9 2.6 4.8 8.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 5.1 6.4 10.7 109.5 66.5 53.4 1.9 3.8 6.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 7.5 9.6 12.2 108.8 66.1 54.2 2.6 5.4 9.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 12.2 13.6 16.8 134.2 73.8 60.7 3.5 6.5 10.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 11.7 11.6 15.9 122.4 70.3 59.5 2.4 5.3 9.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 6.5 8.8 16.0 117.4 68.5 58.3 2.3 4.7 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 4.4 5.8 10.8 112.4 67.6 53.2 1.6 3.2 5.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 13.5 16.9 15.8 108.6 65.4 56.6 4.7 9.8 17.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 8.9 8.4 16.0 117.1 68.6 58.6 2.2 4.4 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 7.7 9.8 16.4 110.9 66.1 57.4 2.5 5.4 9.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 11.5 11.0 15.0 118.7 69.0 58.9 2.6 5.6 9.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 7.0 9.0 14.6 114.7 67.6 57.5 3.0 5.3 8.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 8.2 11.6 16.0 118.2 68.9 59.4 2.9 6.0 10.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 11.0 13.1 15.6 104.6 64.3 55.3 3.4 7.5 14.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 6.0 11.1 17.1 146.7 76.8 60.6 2.1 4.3 7.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 10.6 10.7 15.7 124.5 70.9 60.3 2.9 5.5 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 3.9 5.4 10.9 116.5 69.0 55.9 1.5 2.8 4.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 7.3 8.8 16.6 105.4 63.9 56.1 2.4 5.2 9.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 5.6 6.9 10.9 106.4 65.4 53.2 2.1 4.1 7.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 6.9 8.3 19.8 103.1 63.1 56.0 2.3 5.1 9.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 6.7 8.4 13.8 111.2 66.6 55.8 2.2 4.7 8.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 4.3 5.7 11.4 112.4 67.5 55.9 1.7 3.3 5.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 5.8 7.1 11.7 104.3 64.6 53.6 1.9 4.1 7.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 9.6 12.0 15.0 108.4 65.4 56.0 2.9 6.5 12.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 9.6 8.7 14.9 115.3 68.2 56.3 2.3 4.6 8.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 5.5 7.3 14.9 110.9 66.4 55.9 1.8 4.0 7.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 2.5 8.2 13.6 113.1 67.5 54.7 2.3 4.5 7.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 10.2 12.2 16.9 143.0 75.9 61.7 2.6 5.1 8.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 11.2 12.8 17.1 101.4 62.4 55.7 3.7 8.2 14.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 5.1 6.5 11.2 109.9 66.6 52.9 1.9 3.7 6.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------