***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.02.2018.-11.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 35.4 39.6 45.5 109.1 63.5 56.6 22.1 31.1 41.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 31.4 35.4 39.0 109.4 63.7 57.7 19.9 27.7 36.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 43.4 48.6 44.4 109.0 63.4 56.5 27.2 38.2 51.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 47.0 57.3 57.1 120.5 70.1 61.1 31.8 42.1 53.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 46.1 51.2 52.7 111.4 64.9 57.9 31.1 41.0 51.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 37.8 39.8 52.3 107.1 61.9 55.3 24.2 32.9 42.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 29.0 34.0 39.0 111.8 65.1 58.4 18.3 25.8 34.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 70.0 72.2 54.7 105.6 60.7 54.5 53.9 64.8 76.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 38.6 42.6 52.9 110.8 64.6 57.9 25.8 34.2 43.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 46.3 48.3 55.3 106.4 61.2 55.4 32.8 41.8 51.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 37.8 41.1 50.5 107.9 62.5 56.0 24.3 33.3 43.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 43.0 45.5 49.4 106.7 61.6 55.0 28.5 38.0 48.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 44.6 45.5 52.1 103.1 58.7 53.0 31.4 40.3 50.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 55.0 56.9 55.1 103.6 59.3 53.9 37.3 49.6 62.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 38.7 59.8 58.1 132.6 74.7 63.5 20.3 32.5 48.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 38.9 42.3 51.0 108.7 63.0 56.4 27.1 35.1 44.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 29.6 34.9 38.4 113.6 66.2 60.2 19.3 26.6 34.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 43.6 44.7 57.2 103.7 59.0 54.0 28.5 38.7 50.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 34.5 38.2 40.2 108.3 63.0 57.1 23.4 31.3 40.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 46.5 44.7 67.0 99.0 55.3 50.7 29.3 40.7 53.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 40.2 44.9 48.8 109.0 63.4 56.7 25.0 35.3 47.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 31.4 36.5 40.9 113.7 66.2 60.5 21.4 28.5 36.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 31.3 34.3 43.1 106.7 61.9 55.9 21.4 28.5 36.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 48.5 52.0 52.6 106.4 61.4 55.5 32.8 43.7 55.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 41.4 44.4 50.6 104.8 60.6 54.1 24.8 36.2 49.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 38.6 39.8 50.8 104.2 59.8 53.7 27.7 35.1 42.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 34.7 38.3 47.4 107.0 62.1 55.3 21.3 30.6 41.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 40.6 54.3 55.7 125.1 71.8 62.0 24.3 35.3 48.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 69.0 67.9 59.8 100.4 56.2 51.9 48.1 62.4 78.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 33.9 38.3 40.7 109.7 63.9 57.3 21.9 30.2 39.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------