***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.02.2012.-11.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 98 2 0 100 9999.0 -5.1 -4.4 -4.0 4.2 8.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 96 4 0 100 -4.1 -6.0 -4.7 -3.9 5.2 9.9 -2.6 -1.4 -0.2 30 Becej 27400G00 100 0 0 100 -1.8 -3.9 -4.6 -4.0 4.0 8.1 -0.3 0.9 2.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 99 1 0 100 -8.2 -9.5 -5.9 -3.4 8.4 11.4 -6.5 -5.1 -3.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 97 3 0 100 -4.1 -5.2 -5.6 -3.4 8.0 11.3 -2.8 -1.7 -0.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 94 6 0 100 -4.5 -5.2 -6.9 -2.7 11.2 14.5 -3.4 -2.4 -1.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 97 3 0 100 -3.8 -5.6 -4.7 -4.0 5.2 10.1 -2.3 -1.1 0.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 91 9 0 100 -10.2 -11.3 -6.6 -3.0 9.6 13.7 -8.9 -7.7 -6.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 94 6 0 100 -3.1 -4.5 -5.3 -3.5 7.1 11.0 -1.9 -0.8 0.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 91 9 0 100 -3.0 -3.9 -6.2 -3.1 9.7 13.7 -1.9 -0.8 0.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 96 4 0 100 -3.4 -4.6 -5.9 -3.3 7.1 10.4 -2.1 -1.1 -0.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 95 5 0 100 -4.5 -5.8 -6.2 -3.5 6.3 9.8 -3.3 -2.2 -1.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 96 4 0 100 -3.8 -5.0 -6.3 -3.3 7.1 10.5 -2.5 -1.4 -0.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 95 5 0 100 -2.8 -4.2 -5.4 -3.6 6.2 10.5 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 98 2 0 100 -3.4 -4.8 -5.7 -3.7 6.8 9.7 -1.9 -0.8 0.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 96 4 0 100 -2.6 -3.8 -6.2 -3.4 7.0 10.0 -1.4 -0.5 0.5 30 Nis 06700G01 93 7 0 100 -3.9 -5.5 -4.6 -3.7 7.1 12.4 -2.4 -1.2 0.1 30 Palic 37000G16 83 17 0 100 -4.9 -5.5 -6.5 -2.8 13.2 17.4 -4.0 -3.0 -2.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 97 3 0 100 -3.9 -5.9 -4.6 -3.9 4.7 9.1 -2.5 -1.2 -0.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 72 28 0 100 -8.4 -8.9 -7.4 -2.0 19.1 23.8 -7.5 -6.1 -4.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 98 2 0 100 -3.6 -5.3 -4.7 -3.8 5.3 9.3 -2.2 -1.1 0.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 95 5 0 100 -4.0 -5.6 -4.5 -3.7 6.7 11.8 -2.7 -1.4 -0.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 100 0 0 100 -3.8 -5.6 -4.7 -3.9 4.2 8.2 -2.5 -1.5 -0.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 95 5 0 100 -3.4 -4.6 -5.5 -3.4 7.5 11.6 -2.2 -1.2 -0.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 96 4 0 100 -3.6 -4.8 -5.3 -3.5 7.1 11.1 -2.3 -1.3 -0.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 93 7 0 100 -3.4 -4.6 -6.1 -3.1 7.6 11.6 -2.3 -1.4 -0.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 97 3 0 100 -3.7 -5.4 -4.9 -3.8 5.7 10.1 -2.3 -1.0 0.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 99 1 0 100 -4.7 -5.8 -5.8 -3.6 7.4 10.1 -3.4 -2.3 -1.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 79 21 0 100 -6.0 -6.6 -6.8 -2.4 15.9 20.2 -5.1 -3.9 -2.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 98 2 0 100 -3.7 -5.7 -4.6 -4.0 4.4 8.7 -2.1 -0.9 0.3 30 Zrenjanin ------------------------------ ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju ------------------------------ ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 na severu i u centralnoj, na jugu 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------