***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.02.2012.-04.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 9999.0 -3.4 -2.9 -3.4 16.4 25.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 -2.6 -4.0 -3.4 -3.6 15.3 23.8 -2.0 -0.5 0.9 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 -0.5 -1.9 -3.2 -3.5 15.3 23.6 0.2 1.8 3.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 -6.6 -7.2 -4.3 -2.6 22.3 27.8 -5.7 -3.8 -2.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 -2.7 -3.2 -4.2 -2.7 22.1 27.9 -2.2 -0.8 0.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 -3.0 -2.9 -5.1 -1.6 31.2 36.0 -2.8 -1.5 -0.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 -2.3 -3.6 -3.3 -3.6 15.8 24.9 -1.7 -0.2 1.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 -8.5 -8.7 -4.9 -2.1 26.3 32.2 -8.0 -6.4 -5.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 -2.0 -2.7 -4.0 -3.0 20.2 26.8 -1.3 0.1 1.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 -1.8 -2.1 -4.6 -2.4 24.5 30.7 -1.3 0.0 1.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 -2.1 -2.6 -4.3 -2.5 22.4 28.0 -1.6 -0.1 1.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 -3.2 -3.6 -4.5 -2.5 22.5 28.3 -2.6 -1.2 0.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 -2.2 -2.4 -4.6 -2.2 25.7 30.9 -1.8 -0.3 1.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 -1.6 -2.5 -4.1 -3.1 19.4 26.7 -1.1 0.4 1.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 -2.7 -3.3 -4.3 -3.0 19.2 25.0 -1.7 -0.1 1.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 -1.4 -1.7 -4.5 -2.4 24.1 29.3 -0.9 0.5 1.8 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 -2.6 -3.8 -3.2 -3.3 18.5 27.0 -2.1 -0.4 1.2 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 -3.8 -3.9 -4.9 -2.1 27.9 33.7 -3.4 -2.1 -0.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 -2.5 -3.9 -3.4 -3.6 14.7 22.9 -1.8 -0.3 1.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 -7.8 -6.9 -5.5 -1.1 36.9 41.8 -7.4 -5.3 -3.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 -2.3 -3.3 -3.3 -3.2 18.2 25.9 -1.7 -0.2 1.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 -2.8 -3.9 -3.2 -3.3 17.9 25.9 -2.2 -0.7 0.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 -2.7 -3.8 -3.6 -3.6 14.9 22.7 -2.0 -0.6 0.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 -2.3 -3.1 -4.2 -2.9 20.4 27.4 -1.8 -0.4 0.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 -2.4 -3.0 -3.8 -2.9 20.1 27.3 -1.8 -0.5 0.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 -2.1 -2.2 -4.2 -2.0 27.4 32.9 -1.7 -0.4 0.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 -2.4 -3.3 -3.4 -3.2 18.1 26.4 -1.6 -0.1 1.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 -3.6 -4.1 -4.3 -2.8 21.8 26.8 -2.9 -1.4 0.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 -4.7 -4.3 -5.1 -1.6 32.8 37.7 -4.3 -2.7 -1.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 -2.2 -3.7 -3.3 -3.6 14.8 23.3 -1.6 0.0 1.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------