***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.02.2012.-11.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 98 2 0 100 9999.0 2.1 3.5 -4.3 5.2 9.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 98 2 0 100 3.8 0.8 2.9 -4.7 4.2 8.2 5.9 7.7 9.4 30 Becej 27400G00 95 5 0 100 4.6 2.1 3.8 -4.3 5.8 10.4 6.7 8.4 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 97 3 0 100 -2.4 -4.5 1.8 -4.3 6.9 10.3 -0.3 1.4 3.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 94 6 0 100 4.8 2.7 2.6 -4.1 7.4 11.4 6.8 8.5 10.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 94 6 0 100 4.4 2.6 1.1 -3.8 7.5 11.5 6.1 7.7 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 98 2 0 100 3.4 0.5 2.9 -4.6 4.3 8.4 5.6 7.4 9.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 91 9 0 100 -3.3 -4.6 1.8 -3.6 8.5 12.8 -2.0 -0.8 0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 89 11 0 100 5.3 3.5 3.5 -3.8 8.7 13.4 7.0 8.8 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 90 10 0 100 5.3 3.6 2.5 -3.6 9.0 13.6 7.1 8.8 10.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 92 8 0 100 5.2 3.1 2.6 -4.0 7.3 11.4 7.1 8.8 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 91 9 0 100 5.0 3.0 2.3 -3.9 7.2 11.3 6.7 8.2 9.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 96 4 0 100 5.5 3.4 1.9 -4.0 6.2 10.1 7.3 8.9 10.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 89 11 0 100 5.2 3.2 3.6 -3.7 8.6 13.8 7.1 8.9 10.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 98 2 0 100 3.4 1.2 2.1 -4.4 7.1 10.3 5.8 7.8 9.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 95 5 0 100 5.7 3.5 2.1 -4.1 6.5 10.2 7.6 9.2 10.8 30 Nis 06700G01 93 7 0 100 3.6 1.3 3.0 -4.1 6.5 11.1 5.5 7.2 8.8 30 Palic 37000G16 89 11 0 100 5.0 3.4 2.1 -3.4 9.8 14.8 6.7 8.4 9.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 97 3 0 100 3.7 0.6 3.2 -4.7 4.6 8.7 5.9 7.7 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 90 10 0 100 1.3 0.1 0.2 -3.1 9.7 14.5 2.8 4.2 5.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 92 8 0 100 5.0 3.1 3.9 -3.9 7.9 12.7 6.9 8.6 10.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 90 10 0 100 4.0 1.6 3.4 -4.0 6.9 11.7 6.0 7.8 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 94 6 0 100 4.4 1.7 3.7 -4.4 5.7 10.3 6.4 8.2 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 89 11 0 100 5.5 3.6 3.4 -3.7 8.6 13.7 7.1 8.8 10.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 95 5 0 100 4.0 2.0 2.5 -3.9 7.2 11.7 6.0 7.8 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 95 5 0 100 5.4 3.5 1.8 -3.8 6.4 10.5 7.1 8.5 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 96 4 0 100 4.4 2.1 2.9 -4.1 5.8 10.3 6.4 8.1 9.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 98 2 0 100 3.6 1.1 2.0 -4.5 6.6 9.8 6.2 8.3 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 89 11 0 100 1.2 -0.2 1.3 -3.2 10.0 15.0 2.8 4.3 5.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 98 2 0 100 3.7 0.6 3.0 -4.8 3.9 7.7 5.9 7.6 9.2 30 Zrenjanin ------------------------------ ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju ------------------------------ ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 na severu i u centralnoj, na jugu 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------